DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...92 AT FALCON LAKE TX AND ZAPATA TX

LOW TUE...5 AT BURGESS JUNCTION WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...SAULT STE MARIE MI 0.68 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough across the East, a ridge in western Canada, and a complex trough in the North Pacific. The ridge will build and move into the middle of the country this weekend into early next week. A large piece of the Pacific trough is forecast to move into the West by the middle of next week and then eventually through the rest of the country by the end of next week. A ridge will develop behind it in the West as the trough moves east.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but differ on how to develop a system in the middle to end of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal across most of the country with temperatures falling in the West. Near to below normal temperatures are likely to move into the Plains behind a system that moves through during the week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Seemingly everything is on the table in terms of precipitation and temperatures, but the most likely scenario is for moderate precipitation to move through with falling temperatures and a turn to snow, which could affect the remaining corn harvest.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front continues to move south with some scattered showers on Wednesday. Cold air behind the front will bring some frosts and freezes over the next couple of mornings, slowing growth for winter wheat. The precipitation is beneficial however, as drought has been building.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers will be possible near the Great Lakes through Thursday, but cold air settling in will slow soil drainage with some frosts and freezes through the rest of the week. The cold will also slow growth on winter wheat. Temperatures will rise late this week and weekend. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop. Moderate precipitation could cause more delays in the harvest should it occur.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue into Thursday, but harvest should not be impacted very much. Lower temperatures should slow growth on winter wheat through the weekend before temperatures rise.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers will move through over the next couple of days and could affect cotton harvest. Lower temperatures will follow the system going into next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Drought remains a large concern for the region's winter wheat. A trough off the coast will bring in a few waves of light showers over the next week, which may be helpful for a few areas. But more moisture is needed throughout the rest of the fall and winter.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Daily scattered showers will continue across central areas for the next week, while a couple of rounds of showers are expected across southern areas as well. Overall, conditions are favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting and early growth. Some dry periods will favor winter wheat harvest over the south as well.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers have and will move through over the next few days. That will favor corn and soybean planting as well as immature winter wheat. Drier conditions are expected over the weekend, but some isolated showers may pop back up next week, especially over western areas.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will continue across the bulk of the continent through the rest of the week. Overall, conditions remain favorable for winter wheat establishment in the north and planting and early growth in the south. Showers are putting pressure on fall harvest and fieldwork, however.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A couple of weak systems will bring some showers mostly to Ukraine this week, while Russia stays fairly dry. There continues to be dryness concerns for winter wheat establishment in these drier areas and time is running out for beneficial moisture before dormancy.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system is bringing widespread showers to the wheat belt this week, benefiting immature wheat and canola, and developing cotton and sorghum. But showers are also causing harvest delays.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

East: Isolated showers north through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to above normal north and below normal south Friday and Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday, snow possible. Temperatures above normal Monday through Thursday, near normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to above normal northwest and below normal southeast Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

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