DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...93 AT ZAPATA TX

LOW MON...2 BELOW ZERO AT CHOTEAU MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...NORTH PLATTE NE 0.42 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough from eastern Canada into the Great Lakes, a ridge in western Canada, and a complex trough in the North Pacific. The eastern trough will continue to build across the eastern U.S. through the week while the Pacific trough complex will send a couple of pieces of energy underneath the Canadian ridge. A stronger ridge is forecast to develop across the western U.S. over the weekend and then push eastward into the middle of the continent next week. A large piece of the Pacific trough is forecast to move into the West by the middle of next week and then eventually through the rest of the country by the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but differ on how to develop a system in the middle or end of next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal for the southeastern U.S. and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually rise across much of the country through the period, except in the West, where temperatures should fall. A system should move into the West early next week and eventually move through the rest of the U.S., though models differ on how to develop it.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Cold weather will be in place for the couple of days but it should remain dry. Higher temperatures will arrive late this week and weekend and there is a chance for a few showers going into next week. A system will likely move through during the middle of next week, but there is uncertainty in how this will develop.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A front continues to move south and a system developing on the front should bring some scattered showers to the region through Wednesday. Cold air behind the front will bring some frosts and freezes through the week, slowing growth for winter wheat. Any precipitation would be beneficial however, as drought has been building, especially across the western areas.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers will be possible near the Great Lakes for the next couple of days, but cold air settling in will slow soil drainage with some frosts and freezes through the week. The cold will also slow growth on winter wheat. Temperatures will rise late this week and weekend.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A front slipping through the region will have some occasional showers this week, but moderate amounts should stick to southern areas. Overall, harvest should not be impacted very much.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather will continue for the next few days before a front moves through with scattered showers on Thursday. Lower temperatures will follow the front going into next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Drought remains a large concern for the region's winter wheat. A trough off the coast will bring in a few waves of light showers, which may be helpful for a few areas, but more moisture is needed throughout the rest of the fall and winter.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue daily across central areas for the next week, while a couple of rounds of showers are expected across southern areas as well. Overall, conditions are favorable for soybean and full-season corn planting and early growth. Some dry periods will favor winter wheat harvest over the south as well.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers moved through the region this weekend and will be more widespread this week as a couple of rounds of showers are expected with some slow-moving systems. That will favor corn and soybean planting as well as immature winter wheat.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers will push across the continent through the week as several storm systems slide through. Overall, conditions remain favorable for winter wheat establishment in the north and planting and early growth in the south. Showers are putting pressure on fall harvest and fieldwork, however.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A couple of weak systems will bring some showers mostly to Ukraine this week, while Russia stays fairly dry. There continues to be dryness concerns for winter wheat establishment in these drier areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system will bring widespread showers to the wheat belt this week, benefiting immature wheat and canola, and developing cotton and sorghum.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday and Saturday.

East: Isolated showers through Wednesday, mostly north. Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to above normal north and below normal south Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday and Monday, above normal Tuesday through Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal northwest and below normal southeast Thursday and Friday, near to above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday, above normal Monday through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near normal Monday and Tuesday, above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday and Saturday.

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