DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...96 AT CHINO CA, ANAHEIM CA, AND MECCA CA

LOW THU...5 AT BRIDGEPORT CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...MOBILE AL 3.18 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge in eastern Canada, a trough in the Southeast, a ridge in the West and Plains, a trough complex in the North Pacific, and a piece of it moving into the Pacific Northwest. The U.S. trough will slowly move eastward through the weekend. The western ridge will only last a couple of days. A piece of energy from the North Pacific will move through Canada and the northern U.S. over the weekend, then deepen across the East in the middle of next week. A ridge will develop in the West next week and try to shield the country from the North Pacific trough but will only have limited success as a piece of energy slips across the southern U.S. next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how cold to make it next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal for most of the country, with some above normal temperatures in the Southwest. Lower temperatures will build across the eastern half of the country next week but rise in the West. Those above normal temperatures will likely slide eastward, but the Southeastern U.S. could remain below normal through next weekend. A system will form along a front in the Southern Plains and bring showers northeast through the eastern Midwest in the middle and end of next week, bringing colder weather farther south.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers this week may have impacted the remaining corn harvest. A strong cold front will send temperatures tumbling this weekend and continue next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought scattered showers to much of the region this week. These showers missed western winter wheat areas that did not get much precipitation out of the last couple of systems. Windy conditions over the last couple of days likely dried out topsoils further, which could hurt winter wheat establishment. Precipitation will come to these areas next week, but that could come in the form of snow with very cold weather moving in as well.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Rain will continue to move through the region through Saturday, exacerbate wet field conditions over a good portion of the region, and continue to delay harvest and winter wheat planting. Cold weather moving in this weekend into next week will slow drainage and could lead to some more precipitation for southern and eastern areas for further delays.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought moderate rainfall to some areas this week, which may be causing harvest delays but good moisture for winter wheat. More showers are expected with a front that moves through next week, along with falling temperatures.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): A system moved through with widespread and heavy showers that could cause more of a delay to cotton harvest. Some lighter showers may linger into the weekend before going on a drier trend into next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A trough off the coast has brought some periods of showers to the region over the last week, being beneficial for winter wheat establishment in some spots, but too light in others. This trough will continue to bring moisture into the region through the weekend but is mostly falling out over the mountains. Another wave or two may be possible next week as the trough remains offshore.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue over central areas for the next week, continuing to benefit soybean and full-season corn planting and early growth. Dry conditions across the south have favored winter wheat harvest this week while there is still plenty of soil moisture for early plant growth. Isolated showers will move back into southern areas this weekend and scattered showers are expected next week as a system moves through.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions this week have been unfavorable for corn and soybean planting and establishment. Isolated showers will start to move back in Friday and through the weekend with a better chance at widespread scattered showers next week as a system moves through.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The next system is moving into western areas Friday and will spread east through the weekend with good widespread showers across the continent, favoring winter wheat establishment but delaying remaining fall harvest.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Dry weather looks to be in place through Monday along with above normal temperatures going through next week. Winter wheat is starting to run out of time before colder weather settles in for the year and wheat goes dormant. Some showers may move through the region next week but are forecast to be spotty.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Most of the country still has beneficial soil moisture for filling winter wheat and canola, and also cotton and sorghum planting and establishment as well. Dryness will continue through the weekend, but a system will move through next week that appears to have a good chance at widespread moderate showers.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers south Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, below normal Monday and Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers south Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday through Saturday, near to above normal north and below normal south Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures below to well below normal Wednesday through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers south Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

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