DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...97 AT MCALLEN TX AND FALCON LAKE TX

LOW WED...10 AT BERTHOUD PASS CO AND WOLF CREEK PASS CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...WICHITA KS 1.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge in eastern Canada, a trough in the South-Central U.S., a ridge in the West, and a trough complex in the North Pacific. The U.S. trough will slowly move eastward through the weekend. The western ridge will only last a couple of days. A piece of energy from the North Pacific will move through Canada and the northern U.S. over the weekend, then deepen across the East in the middle of next week. A ridge will develop in the West next week and try to shield the country from the North Pacific trough but will only have limited success.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how cold to make it next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to below normal for most of the country, with some above normal temperatures in the Southwest. Lower temperatures will build across the eastern half of the country through the period while they should rise in the West. A system will form along a front in the Southern Plains and bring showers northeast through the eastern Midwest in the middle of next week, bringing colder weather farther south.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers this week may have impacted the remaining corn harvest. Mostly dry weather is expected for the next several days, but low temperatures will make their way in this weekend and continue next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought scattered showers to much of the region over the last few days and will exit eastward Thursday. These showers missed western winter wheat areas that did not get much precipitation out of the last couple of systems. Modeled soil moisture is still adequate in some of these areas, but lacking in others, and windy conditions over the last couple of days likely dried out topsoils, which could hurt winter wheat establishment. Precipitation will come to these areas next week, but that could come in the form of snow with cold weather moving in as well.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Rain will move through over the next few days and will exacerbate wet field conditions over a good portion of the region and continue to delay harvest and winter wheat planting. Cold weather moving in this weekend into next week will slow drainage and could lead to some more precipitation for southern and eastern areas for further delays.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A system is moving through and already brought moderate rainfall to some areas, which may be causing harvest delays, but good moisture for winter wheat. More showers are expected with a front that moves through next week, along with falling temperatures.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): A system is moving through with widespread and heavy showers that could cause more of a delay to cotton harvest Thursday. Some lighter showers may linger into the weekend before going on a drier trend into next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A trough off the coast has brought some periods of showers to the region over the last week, being beneficial for winter wheat establishment in some spots, but too light in others. This trough will continue to bring moisture into the region through the weekend but is mostly falling out over the mountains. Another wave or two may be possible next week as the trough remains offshore.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue over central areas for the next week, continuing to benefit soybean and full-season corn planting and early growth. Dry conditions across the south continue to favor winter wheat harvest while there is still plenty of soil moisture for early plant growth. Isolated showers will move back into southern areas this weekend and scattered showers are expected next week as a system moves through.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions this week will continue to be unfavorable for corn and soybean planting and establishment, but showers last week were beneficial for immature winter wheat. Isolated showers will start to move back in on Friday through the weekend with a better chance at scattered showers next week as a system moves through.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Most areas will be dry for the next couple of days, favoring fall harvest. The next system will move into western areas Friday and continue through the coming weekend and looks to spread good showers across most of the continent into early next week, favoring winter wheat establishment.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Dry weather looks to be in place through Monday and winter wheat is starting to run out of time before colder weather settles in for the year and wheat goes dormant. Some showers may move through the region next week but are forecast to be spotty.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Most of the country still has beneficial soil moisture for filling winter wheat and canola, and also cotton and sorghum planting and establishment as well. There will be a weak system moving through over the next couple of days that could produce some beneficial showers for summer crops but delay some early harvest.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Thursday, south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near normal Sunday, below normal Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures below normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers east exiting Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers north Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday and Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures below to well below normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, below normal Wednesday through Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Thursday and Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday and Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, below normal Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.