Commodities Market Impact Weather

Slow-Moving Storm Brings Heavy Rains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A strong system moving across the United States and increasing chances for Argentina are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

DAYS OF MIDWEST RAIN

Heavy rainfall during the weekend likely produced delays for the remaining harvest for much of the Midwest. Another system is going to be a slow mover this week with scattered showers through Saturday before exiting eastward. Precipitation amounts are likely to be light to moderate with heavy rainfall possible west of the Mississippi River. Moderate rains over a couple of days should continue to produce delays for the remaining harvest and to winter wheat planting. Cold weather moving in this weekend into next week will slow drainage and could lead to some more precipitation for eastern states for further delays.

SOUTHERN PLAINS SEES RAIN IN THE EAST

A system started to bring showers to the Southern Plains Tuesday night and continues east Wednesday into Thursday. These showers missed western winter wheat areas that did not get much precipitation out of the last couple of systems. Modeled soil moisture is still adequate in some of these areas, but lacking in others. Winds are also continuing to be strong for the next couple of days and will draw out additional moisture, which could hurt winter wheat establishment. Precipitation will come to these areas next week, but that could come in the form of snow with very cold conditions moving in as well.

RAIN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS CONTINUES EAST

A system started to bring more widespread showers to the Northern Plains on Tuesday and that continues Wednesday in the eastern Dakotas, which could have an impact on the remaining harvest. Dry weather should follow, however, but low temperatures will make their way in this weekend and continue into next week.

SHOWERS COMING BACK TO THE DELTA

A system will move through the Delta with scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday that should bring moderate amounts and some risk for harvest delays. More showers are expected with a front that moves through next week, along with falling temperatures.

WIDESPREAD SOUTHEAST RAIN

A system will move through the Southeast with widespread and heavy showers that could cause more of a delay to harvest Wednesday night and Thursday. Some lighter showers may linger into the weekend.

LOW RAIN CHANCES FOR PACIFIC NORTHWEST

A trough off the Pacific Coast has brought some periods of showers to the Pacific Northwest during the last week, being beneficial for winter wheat establishment in some spots, but too light in others. This trough will continue to produce showers through the weekend before mostly shutting down as a ridge takes over for next week.

BLACK SEA AREA KEEPING DRY THROUGH WEEKEND

Dry weather looks to be in place across Ukraine and western Russia through Monday and winter wheat is starting to run out of time before lower temperatures settle in for the year and wheat goes dormant. Some showers may move through the region next week but are forecast to be spotty. Temperatures will be well-above normal and could stress these dry areas.

DAILY RAINS FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers will continue over central Brazil, continuing to benefit soybean and full-season corn planting and early growth, while it remains dry across southern areas. Winter wheat harvest should find better conditions while there is still plenty of soil moisture for early plant growth. Isolated showers will move back into southern areas this weekend and scattered showers are expected next week as a system moves through.

INCREASING CHANCES FOR RAIN IN ARGENTINA NEXT WEEK

Dry conditions in Argentina this week will continue to be unfavorable for corn and soybean planting and establishment, but showers last week were beneficial for immature winter wheat. Isolated showers will start to move back in Friday through the weekend, with a better chance at scattered showers next week as a system moves through.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick