DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...99 AT ZAPATA TX

LOW SUN...15 AT 13 MILES NORTH OF WHITE SPRINGS MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...SACRAMENTO CA 3.92 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge in central Canada, a trough in the Midwest, and another trough in the North Pacific. The eastern trough will continue east for the next couple of days. The North Pacific trough will send a piece of energy through the West, deepening across the Plains and then slowly moving eastward through the weekend. A ridge will briefly replace the trough in the West, but another piece of energy will move through Canada and the northern U.S. over the weekend, then deepen across the East in the middle of next week. A ridge will finally take a grip on the West early next week as well.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how cold to make it next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal in the Pacific Northwest and Southeast, but near to above normal elsewhere. Lower temperatures will spread across the eastern half of the country through the period while they should rise in the West. One system will be pushing eastward out of the country over the weekend while another front should move south east of the Rockies this weekend through the middle of next week. A reinforcing front could move through in the middle of next week. Precipitation amounts could be low but include snow for some areas of the Plains and Upper Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend but were mostly light with only some localized moderate amounts. A system should bring more widespread showers through the region Tuesday and Wednesday, which could be a little more impactful for harvest. Dry weather should follow, however, and some cold weather could make its way in this weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers developed over eastern areas of the region this weekend as a system developed. Another system will push through the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with more scattered showers. These showers are looking to mostly miss western winter wheat areas that did not get much precipitation out of the last couple of systems. Modeled soil moisture is still adequate in some of these areas, but lacking in others, which could hurt winter wheat establishment if this week's rains are not substantial.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers developed across the southern two-thirds of the region this weekend and were moderate to heavy in spots and included some severe weather on Sunday, all of which should cause some delays for harvest. Another system is winding up to produce more delays for mid to late week with more widespread showers across the region that could cause further delays.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A few showers moved through on Sunday night, mostly across northern areas. A system will move through with scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, which should bring moderate amounts and some risk for harvest delays.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather occurred over the weekend. A front will bring some scattered showers through early this week. Another system will move through late this week with more widespread and heavy showers that could cause more of a delay to harvest.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, being moderate in a few spots. Waves of showers will continue through the week as a system offshore continues to bring in moisture from the Pacific. The focus could turn farther north later this week before drying out this weekend. Overall, showers are beneficial for winter wheat establishment and drought reduction in the area.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought scattered showers through most areas over the weekend, continuing to produce beneficial conditions for everything but winter wheat harvest. The front to the system will stall in central areas and continue the showers for the next week while it will be dry across the south. Winter wheat harvest should find better conditions while there is still plenty of soil moisture for early plant growth.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and were more widespread than forecast. While the showers will be a short-term benefit to corn and soybean planting and establishment and also reproductive to filling wheat, this week looks very dry with just a chance for a few isolated showers over western areas late this week and weekend.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend. Some isolated showers will move through, but most areas will be dry this week, favoring fall harvest. The next system will move into western areas this coming weekend and looks to spread good showers across most of the continent into early next week, favoring winter wheat establishment.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Some isolated showers moved through with a front this weekend, but amounts were light and of very little help for winter wheat establishment. Low temperatures through Tuesday morning will not be helpful either. Dry weather looks to be in place for the next week and winter wheat is starting to run out of time before colder weather settles in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Some scattered showers moved through southern and eastern coastal areas over the weekend, but much of the country's wheat belt stayed dry. Most of the country still has beneficial soil moisture for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola, and also cotton and sorghum planting and establishment as well. There will be a weak system moving through mid to late week that could produce some beneficial showers.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal north and above normal south.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday through Friday.

East: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Scattered showers Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday and Sunday, below normal Monday through Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers east. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. Isolated showers east Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday and Sunday, near to below normal Monday through Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday through Tuesday, below normal Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers north Thursday and Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers west Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated showers west Friday. Temperatures above normal through Friday.

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