Commodities Market Impact Weather

Quieter Weather Friday Before Active Weekend

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Scattered showers expected for the Pacific Northwest and Corn Belt, along with the continued La Nina pattern in South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

SCATTERED MIDWEST SHOWERS

A system brought scattered showers to the Midwest this week with some pockets of moderate rainfall that could produce some harvest delays. Temperatures are falling below normal behind this system through the weekend before rising again. Another system will move over southern areas this weekend into early next week, and again with a system passing through in the middle of next week. These two pieces have better chances of producing harvest delays for corn and soybeans as moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS

Temperatures in the Southern Plains will go on a warming trend this weekend into next week. A few showers will be possible Friday through the weekend, but mostly for eastern areas. Western areas may be concerned with moisture if a system does not produce showers in the middle of next week.

OCCASIONAL SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS

A system brought some pockets of moderate rainfall to mostly South Dakota earlier this week, which may have caused some delays for harvest, but nothing overly concerning. Temperatures will be below normal for a couple of days, but go above normal again this weekend into next week. Some showers may return during the weekend but an organized system is expected around Tuesday that could have more scattered showers.

SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE DELTA

Scattered showers in the Delta are likely this weekend into early next week and again in the middle of next week, which could cause some harvest delays but benefit winter wheat establishment.

SOUTHEAST SHOWERS DELAY HARVEST AGAIN

A front is moving through the Southeast with scattered showers that could produce some delays to cotton harvest. Two more periods of showers are expected next week that have a better chance of causing delays.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST SEEING BENEFICIAL RAINFALL

A trough in the North Pacific will continue to push pieces of energy and scattered showers through the Pacific Northwest for at least the next week. That should help to improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment, though temperatures will be below normal at times.

BLACK SEA WHEAT IN NEED OF MORE RAIN

Some isolated showers have moved through the Black Sea region recently, but more spots have been dry than got a shower. A front will move through with more scattered showers this weekend before temperatures fall below normal and some frosts develop. Dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment before lower temperatures settle in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

CENTRAL BRAZIL RAINS CONTINUING

Scattered showers will continue in central Brazil for the next week, benefiting corn and soybean planting and development. Dryness over the south is not concerning for corn or soybeans and should benefit winter wheat harvest. A front will bring more showers to southern areas this weekend.

DRYNESS CONTINUES TO CONCERN ARGENTINA

Recent dryness in Argentina has been detrimental for corn and soybean planting and emergence, and also for reproductive to filling winter wheat. A front is moving through the country with some scattered showers through early Saturday. Coverage does not look to be very widespread and dryness looks to follow again through most of next week.

CHINA DRYING OUT

Rainfall earlier in October bogged down soils for corn and soybean harvest along with preventing planting for wheat and canola on the North China Plain. Recent dry stretches continue for the next week. That has helped to drain soils, though progress is likely behind schedule.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick