DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...96 AT ZAPATA TX, PHARR TX, AND FALCON LAKE TX

LOW THU...10 AT ANGEL FIRE NM

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...CHATTANOOGA TN 0.95 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge building in central Canada, a trough in the East, and another trough in the North Pacific. The trough in the East will deepen and push eastward this weekend. Meanwhile, the ridge will stay strong in Canada with a weakness across the U.S. The trough over the North Pacific will send occasional pieces of energy into the Pacific Northwest. One of those looks to move through the Plains and Midwest in the middle to end of next week as the ridge shifts to eastern Canada. The trough will remain in the North Pacific while a ridge will build back in over the Southwest by next weekend.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but have differences on how to develop the system next week. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to below normal across the West and above normal elsewhere. There may be some more normal temperatures across the Southeast by the weekend, but most areas will be normal or rise above normal into next weekend. A system will move from the West into the Plains and Midwest by the middle of next week with scattered showers as it moves east through the end of the week. The Pacific Northwest will also see periods of showers.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system brought some pockets of moderate rainfall to mostly South Dakota over the last couple of days, which may have caused some delays for harvest, but nothing overly concerning. Temperatures will go below normal for a couple of days after this system passes through but go above normal again this weekend into next week. Some showers may return over the weekend, but an organized system is expected around Tuesday that could have more scattered showers.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures will rise this weekend and into next week. A few showers will be possible Friday through the weekend, but mostly for eastern areas. Western areas may be concerned with moisture if a system does not produce showers in the middle of next week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought scattered showers to the region this week with some pockets of moderate rainfall that could produce some harvest delays. Temperatures are falling below normal behind this system through the weekend before rising again. Another system will move over southern areas this weekend into early next week, and again with a system passing through in the middle of next week. These two pieces have better chances of producing harvest delays for corn and soybeans as moderate to locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers are likely this weekend into early next week and again in the middle of next week, which could cause some harvest delays but benefit winter wheat establishment.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): A front is moving through with scattered showers that could produce some delays to cotton harvest. Two more periods of showers are expected next week that have a better chance of causing delays.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A trough in the North Pacific will continue to push pieces of energy and scattered showers through the region for at least the next week. That should help to improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment, though temperatures will be below normal at times.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue in central areas for the next week, benefiting corn and soybean planting and development. Dryness over the south is not concerning for corn or soybeans and should benefit winter wheat harvest. A front will bring more showers to southern areas this weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent dryness has been detrimental for corn and soybean planting and emergence, and also for reproductive to filling winter wheat. A front is moving through the country with some scattered showers through early Saturday, but coverage does not look to be very widespread, and dryness looks to follow again through most of next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The pattern has been fairly active over northern areas with several waves of beneficial showers for winter wheat establishment this week. Showers will still move through over the next week but will not be as widespread. Southern areas will see showers over the next couple of days before drier conditions move in for much of next week. Overall, conditions are beneficial for winter wheat establishment across the continent. Showers will hamper fall harvest activities, where they occur.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Some isolated showers have moved through recently, but more spots have been dry than got a shower. A front will move through with more scattered showers this weekend before temperatures fall below normal and some frosts develop. Dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment before colder weather settles in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Most areas continue to have favorable conditions for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola, and cotton and sorghum planting as well. Drier conditions are expected for eastern areas for the next week except along the coast, but western areas saw good showers early this week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

East: Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday through Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday through Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, above normal Saturday through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures below normal through Monday, near to above normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday-Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday-Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to below normal Friday and Saturday, near normal Sunday, above normal Monday and Tuesday.

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