DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...100 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW TUE...2 AT BODIE CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...CASPER WY 0.81 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge building in central Canada, a trough in Hudson Bay with another in the Plains, and yet another trough in the North Pacific. The troughs in the Plains and Hudson Bay will move east, combine, and deepen late this week and weekend over the East. Meanwhile, the ridge will stay strong in Canada with a weakness across the U.S. The trough over the North Pacific will send occasional pieces of energy into the Pacific Northwest. One of those looks to move through the Plains and Midwest in the middle to end of next week as the ridge shifts to eastern Canada.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to below normal across the Northeast and West Coast, and above normal elsewhere. Above normal temperatures will spread eastward next week, while below normal temperatures will continue in the West. Scattered showers may continue early next week across the southern Corn Belt along a front. Another system will move from the West into the Plains and Midwest by the middle of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system is bringing some scattered showers mostly to South Dakota on Wednesday with some snow over western areas again. There may be some continued delays for harvest out of these showers, but nothing overly concerning. Temperatures will go below normal for a couple of days after this system passes through but go above normal again this weekend into next week. Some showers may return over the weekend, but an organized system is expected around Tuesday that could have more scattered showers.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system is bringing some scattered showers to northern areas Wednesday, and some snow to western Nebraska as well. Temperatures will be below normal for a few days after the system passes through but go on a warming trend this weekend into next week. A few showers will be possible over Oklahoma on Thursday. Otherwise, drier weather through the weekend is somewhat concerning for winter wheat establishment, especially if showers do not occur with a system next week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system will bring scattered showers to the region Wednesday and Thursday and temperatures will fall below normal behind the system. Showers could produce some further delays in a few spots across the north. Additional showers will be possible over southern areas this weekend into early next week, and again with a system passing through in the middle of next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A system will pass by to the north over the next couple of days and the region should remain mostly dry, benefiting harvest. Some scattered showers may fall over northern areas late this weekend into early next week, which could cause some harvest delays but benefit winter wheat establishment.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather continues through the middle of the week, benefiting harvest. A front will come through with scattered showers that could produce some delays Thursday and Friday before it gets dry again.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A trough in the North Pacific will continue to push pieces of energy and scattered showers through the region for at least the next week. That should help to improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment, though temperatures will be below normal at times.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will continue in central areas for the next week, benefiting corn and soybean planting and development. Dryness over the south is not concerning for corn or soybeans and should benefit winter wheat harvest. A front will bring more showers to southern areas this weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent dryness has been detrimental for corn and soybean planting and emergence, and also for reproductive to filling winter wheat. A front will move through Thursday and Friday with some scattered showers, but coverage does not look to be very widespread at this time and dryness looks to follow again through most of next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The pattern is active over northern areas with several opportunities for beneficial showers for winter wheat establishment, while temperatures remain mild until late in the week and weekend for a few days before popping back up again. Southern areas will see showers later this week, and overall, conditions are beneficial for winter wheat establishment across the continent. Showers will hamper fall harvest activities, however.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Some isolated showers have moved through recently and continue through the week, but more spots will be dry than get a shower this week. A front will move through with more scattered showers this weekend before temperatures fall below normal and some frosts develop. Dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment before colder weather settles in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Most areas continue to have favorable conditions for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola, and cotton and sorghum planting as well. Drier conditions are expected for eastern areas this week, but western areas saw good showers early this week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers south Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers south Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday through Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday through Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday, near normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday, near normal Sunday.

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