DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...94 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW MON...14 AT BODIE CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...SYRACUSE NY 0.87 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough moving out of the East, a ridge in the Central, a trough in central Canada, another in the central Rockies, and yet another in the North Pacific. The trough in the Rockies will move east and combine with the Canadian trough and deepen late this week and weekend over the East. Meanwhile, a strong ridge will develop in Canada. The trough over the North Pacific will send occasional pieces of energy into the Pacific Northwest. One of those looks to move through the Plains and Midwest in the middle to end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal across the Great Lakes, Northeast, and West Coast, and above normal elsewhere. Above normal temperatures will spread eastward into next week, while below normal temperatures will take over the West. Scattered showers may develop this weekend to early next week across the southern Corn Belt along a front. Another system will move from the West into the Plains and Midwest by the middle of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will bring some scattered showers mostly to South Dakota on Tuesday and Wednesday with some snow over western areas again. There may be some continued delays for harvest out of these showers, but nothing overly concerning. Temperatures will go below normal for a couple of days after this system passes through but go above normal again this weekend into next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather occurred over the weekend, as well as frosty conditions across Nebraska and western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle. A system will bring some scattered showers to northern areas Tuesday and Wednesday, and some snow to western Nebraska as well. Temperatures will be below normal for a few days after the system passes through but go on a warming trend this weekend into next week. Drier weather is somewhat concerning for winter wheat establishment, especially if showers do not occur with a system next week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system will bring scattered showers to the region Wednesday and Thursday and temperatures will fall below normal behind the system. Showers could produce some further delays in a few spots. Additional showers will be possible over southern areas this weekend into early next week, and again with a system passing through in the middle of next week.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers on Friday, enough to benefit winter wheat establishment, but not enough to affect harvest too much. A system will pass by to the north later this week and the region should remain mostly dry, though temperatures will fall below normal for a few days following it. Some scattered showers may fall over northern areas late this weekend or early next week, which could cause some harvest delays, but benefit winter wheat establishment.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather continues through the middle of the week, benefiting harvest. A front will come through with scattered showers that could produce some delays late in the week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system only brought limited showers on Monday and is exiting Idaho on Tuesday. However, a trough in the North Pacific will continue to push pieces of energy and scattered showers through the region for at least the next week. That should help to improve soil moisture for winter wheat establishment, though temperatures will be below normal at times.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers are clearing out of southern areas. Scattered showers will continue in central areas through the week, benefiting corn and soybean planting and development. Dryness over the south is not concerning for corn or soybeans and should benefit winter wheat harvest. A front will bring more showers to southern areas this weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness continues through the middle of the week, unfavorable for all crops. A front will move through late in the week with some scattered showers, but coverage does not look to be very widespread at this time and dryness looks to follow again.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): The pattern is setting up to be active over northern areas with several opportunities for beneficial showers for winter wheat establishment, while temperatures remain mild until late in the week and weekend for a few days before popping back up again. Southern areas will see showers later this week and overall, conditions are beneficial for winter wheat establishment across the continent. Showers will hamper fall harvest activities, however.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend and will continue through the week, but more spots will be dry than get a shower this week. A front will move through with more scattered showers this weekend before temperatures fall below normal and some frosts develop. Dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment before colder weather settles in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Mostly dry conditions were noted over the weekend, but most areas continue to have favorable conditions for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola, and cotton and sorghum planting as well. Drier conditions are expected for eastern areas this week, but western areas are seeing good showers early this week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are favorable as winter wheat and canola planting increases.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Monsoon showers briefly came back to central India this weekend but will quickly leave early this week. The monsoon is winding down, as is typical this time of year. Moisture should be good for the rest of filling cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

East: Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday and Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

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