DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...94 AT COOLIDGE AZ

LOW SUN...10 AT WOLCOTT CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...CARIBOU ME 1.31 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the West, a ridge in the Central, and another trough in the East. The trough in the West is splitting into two systems that will move through Canada and the U.S., then combine again across the East late this week and weekend. Meanwhile, a strong ridge will develop in Canada and another trough will spin over the North Pacific and occasionally bring pieces of energy into the Pacific Northwest. One of these pieces will make it across the Rockies and into the Plains by the middle of next week, underneath the ridge over Canada.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but diverge at the end of the period. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal across the Corn Belt and West Coast, and above normal elsewhere. Above normal temperatures will spread eastward into next week, while below normal temperatures will take over the West. A system will bring showers to the West this weekend and then into the Plains and Midwest by the middle of next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions were noted over the weekend as well as some frosty temperatures. A system will bring some scattered showers mostly to South Dakota on Tuesday and Wednesday with some snow over western areas again. There may be some continued delays for harvest out of these showers, but nothing overly concerning. Temperatures will go below normal for a couple of days after this system passes through but go above normal again this weekend into next week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather occurred over the weekend, as well as frosty temperatures across Nebraska and western Kansas into the Texas Panhandle. A system will bring some scattered showers to northern areas Tuesday and Wednesday, and some snow to western Nebraska as well. Temperatures will be below normal for a few days after the system passes through but goes on a warming trend this weekend into next week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A system brought scattered showers to the southeastern half of the region Friday into early Saturday. A system will bring scattered showers to the region Wednesday and Thursday and temperatures will fall below normal behind the system. Showers could produce some further delays in a few spots. Temperatures will rise above normal again next week to finish out October.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A front brought scattered showers on Friday, enough to benefit winter wheat establishment, but not enough to affect harvest too much. A system will pass by to the north later this week and the region should remain dry, though temperatures will fall below normal for a few days following it.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather continues through the middle of the week, benefiting harvest. A front will come through with scattered showers that could produce some delays late in the week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather continued over the weekend, but a system will move through the region on Monday with some scattered showers. A couple more pulses from a western trough should bring additional showers to the region throughout the next week.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across the country over the weekend but are clearing out of southern areas. Scattered showers will continue in central areas through the week, benefiting corn and soybean planting and development. Dryness over the south is not concerning and should benefit winter wheat harvest. A front will bring more showers to southern areas this coming weekend.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dryness over the weekend continues through the middle of the week, unfavorable for all crops. A front will move through late in the week with some scattered showers, but coverage does not look to be very widespread at this time and dryness looks to follow again.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers cleared out of eastern areas this weekend. The pattern is setting up to be active over northern areas with several opportunities for beneficial showers for winter wheat, while temperatures remain mild until late in the week and weekend for a few days before popping back up again. Southern areas will see showers later this week and overall, conditions are beneficial for winter wheat establishment. Showers will hamper fall harvest activities, however.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend and continue through the week, but more spots will be dry than get a shower this week. A front will move through with more scattered showers this weekend before temperatures fall below normal and some frosts develop. Dryness continues to be a concern for winter wheat establishment before colder weather settles in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Mostly dry conditions were noted over the weekend, but most areas continue to have favorable conditions for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola, and cotton and sorghum planting as well. Drier conditions are expected for the week, but western areas should see good showers early this week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils as winter wheat and canola planting increases.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Monsoon showers briefly came back to central India this weekend but will quickly leave early this week. The monsoon is winding down, as is typical this time of year. Moisture should be good for the rest of filling cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures above normal through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday.

East: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers north Tuesday and Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures falling below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Temperatures above normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures below normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday and Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday and Friday. Temperatures below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

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