DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a strong ridge in eastern Canada, a deep trough moving into the Plains, and a reinforcing trough moving into the West. One portion of the western trough is moving north into central Canada. The remainder will push east through the country this weekend while a ridge will build in behind it into next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, trough will move through Canada and the northern U.S. early-mid next week, but the ridge will be the dominant feature.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal for most of the country. Temperatures may fall across the North-Central midweek. A system will move through Canada next week, and could bring a few showers across northern portions of the country.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...101 AT ZAPATA TX

LOW TUE...5 AT CHOTEAU MT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...JUNEAU AK 1.36 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge in eastern Canada, a deep trough moving into the Plains, and a reinforcing trough moving into the West. One portion of the western trough is moving north into central Canada. The remainder will push east through the country this weekend while a ridge will build in behind it into next week. One trough will move through Canada and the northern U.S. early-to-mid next week, but the ridge will be the dominant feature.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal for most of the country. Temperatures may fall across the North-Central midweek. A system will move through Canada next week and could bring a few showers across northern portions of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A strong system is bringing widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the Dakotas with snow in eastern Montana and Wyoming and the far western Dakotas as well through early Thursday. Strong winds will also be a hazard with this system on Wednesday. Lower temperatures will only stick around for a couple of days before higher temperatures come back into the region over the weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A cold front moving across the region is producing widespread showers. The front will get stuck across southeastern areas for a bit before getting pushed eastward on Friday. Moderate to heavy rain and severe weather will hinder harvest progress while the rainfall would be good for winter wheat outside of any potential flooding.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): A strong system is bringing rain to western areas Wednesday and will weaken as a front moves to the Ohio River on Thursday and stalls. A system will move along the front Friday and Saturday, sweeping the front out of the region. There is potential for localized heavy rain, delaying harvest progress. Drier weather will follow behind this system going into next week, which will help to dry soils, though temperatures will be closer to normal.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): A front will bring showers on Friday. Rain may delay harvest for cotton and soybeans but provide good moisture for winter wheat establishment. Otherwise, conditions are mostly favorable for harvest and winter wheat establishment.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather continues for the next few days, favoring drying soils and harvest. Some showers will move through with a front this weekend, but the favorable conditions will continue.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through Idaho this week, but Washington and Oregon were left mostly dry. Another front will move through Wednesday with isolated showers, but all areas remain in need of precipitation. Lower temperatures are also expected for most of the week before rising this weekend. Overall, conditions are still limiting for winter wheat establishment.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue for the next week over central areas and over southern areas through early next week, overall good for full-season corn and soybean planting and establishment. Some drier weather would actually be favorable for maturing and harvest of winter wheat, which look to come next week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): There remains some rather dry spots in portions of the country that could use more moisture for corn and soybean planting. Winter wheat areas are still doing alright but with soil moisture drying up, more moisture is needed overall across the country. A system will quickly move through the country with scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, while another follows Thursday into Friday. The rainfall is unlikely to be enough and more will be needed. But drier weather looks to take hold over the weekend and continue into next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): One system is leaving southeastern areas, but another will bring some isolated showers to northeastern areas of the continent for the next couple of days, but most areas will remain dry through the weekend. Overall, conditions continue to be favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment and are improving for harvest as well.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A system is moving through Ukraine with scattered showers Wednesday, but western Russia does not have a good chance for showers where it is needed more. Time is running out before lower temperatures settle in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): A system with more widespread showers is moving through eastern areas for the next couple of days, helping to increase moisture for some of the drier areas of the country. Mostly favorable conditions continue for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola along with providing beneficial soil moisture for cotton and sorghum planting.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils as winter wheat and canola planting increases.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Monsoon showers are waning over central India, as is typical for the monsoon to end over the region. Moisture should be good for the rest of filling cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal west and near to above normal east Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Thursday. Isolated to scattered showers Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near normal Tuesday through Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday through Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday through Sunday.

John Baranick