DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...106 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW SUN...10 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...SAN JUAN PR 0.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge in eastern Canada, an upper-level low in the middle of the country, and a deep trough building in the West. The ridge will remain firm through the week while the trough will develop a strong storm system and push north into central Canada in the middle of the week. The remainder of the trough will push east through the country this weekend while a ridge will build in behind it into next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal in the middle of the country and near to above normal on the coasts. Temperatures will gradually rise through the period. A system will quickly push east through the Midwest on Saturday followed by mostly dry weather into the middle of next week for most of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall in some areas, especially in North Dakota. An even stronger system is expected to bring more widespread moderate to heavy rainfall across the Dakotas with snow expected in southern Montana and Wyoming and possibly the western Dakotas as well. Strong winds will also be a hazard with this system. Lower temperatures will only stick around for a couple of days before higher temperatures come back into the region over the weekend.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers developed on Sunday and will continue early on Monday as a system moves through the region. Another system will start to affect the region on Tuesday and more severe weather will be possible as a cold front moves across the region. The front will get stuck across southeastern areas for a bit before getting pushed eastward on Friday. Moderate to heavy rain and severe weather will hinder harvest progress while the rainfall would be good for winter wheat outside of any potential flooding.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through from Friday through the weekend. Another system in the Southern Plains will move through the region with scattered showers and the potential for severe weather on Monday into Tuesday and another strong system will bring more rain to western areas Wednesday and Thursday. The front to the system will finally bring scattered showers to the rest of the region on Friday and Saturday before some drier weather is expected. The heavy rainfall potential in the west will delay harvest progress.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions were noted over the weekend. A system in the Southern Plains will bring scattered showers across the region on Monday and another front will bring showers later in the week. Rain will delay harvest for cotton and soybeans but provide good moisture for winter wheat establishment.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Dry weather came back into the region over the weekend, helping to dry soils and crops that became waterlogged last week. Dry weather is expected through the week with some showers being possible this weekend.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through Idaho this weekend, but Washington and Oregon were left mostly dry. A couple of more fronts will move through the region this week, but with better showers over Idaho than farther west. All areas remain in need of precipitation. Lower temperatures are also expected for most of the week before rising this weekend.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continued over the weekend, heavy in some spots and overall good for full-season corn and soybean planting and establishment. Scattered showers will continue over central areas while a couple of fronts will move into southern areas, all with good rainfall activity. Some drier weather would actually be favorable for maturing and harvest of winter wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers moved through over the weekend, but some rather dry spots remain in portions of the country that could use more moisture for corn and soybean planting. Winter wheat areas are still doing alright, but with soil moisture drying up, more moisture is needed overall across the country. A system will quickly move through the country in the middle of the week with scattered showers while another follows late in the week with isolated showers. The rainfall is unlikely to be enough and more will be needed. But drier weather looks to take hold over the weekend and continue into next week.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers continued over Italy and southeastern winter wheat areas, increasing soil moisture for establishment. Drier weather elsewhere was benefiting fall harvest, planting, and fieldwork activities. A system will bring some isolated showers to northeastern areas of the continent in the middle of the week, but most areas will remain dry through the weekend.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Dry and cool conditions continued through the weekend. This favors fall harvest but is stressing drier sections of both Ukraine and western Russia for winter grain establishment. A system in the Mediterranean moves through Ukraine Tuesday and Wednesday, but western Russia does not have a good chance for showers here and time is running out before lower temperatures settle in for the year and wheat goes dormant.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and continue over eastern areas early this week. Another system with more widespread showers is expected later this week as well. Mostly favorable conditions continue for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola along with providing beneficial soil moisture for cotton and sorghum planting.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils as winter wheat and canola planting increases.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Monsoon showers are waning over central India, as is typical for the monsoon to end over the region. Moisture should be good for the rest of filling cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday, near normal Friday.

East: Scattered showers Monday, north Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday, south Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers east Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers early Monday. Scattered showers Tuesday and Wednesday, south Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal west and near to above normal east Wednesday and Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday through Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday, below normal Friday.

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