DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...101 AT MECCA CA

LOW MON...8 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...COLUMBUS GA 5.18 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge in eastern Canada back into the Plains, an upper-level low in the South, another in southern California, and a trough across the eastern Pacific. The ridge will continue but push just far enough east to draw the upper-level low in the South north through the Great Lakes later this week. The trough in the eastern Pacific will move into the western U.S. this week, being reinforced by another this weekend and next week. The trough will send several pieces of energy into the Plains and Upper Midwest.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal west of the Rockies and above normal east of the Rockies. This pattern will continue through the period with a chance for lower temperatures to leak into the Plains toward the middle of next week. A series of two or three systems will emerge from the trough in the west during the extended period with scattered showers in the Plains and Upper Midwest being possible.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers that moved through last week may have caused some harvest delays, but dryness and good harvest conditions have returned to the region. A series of systems looks to move through late this week into next week, which will bring chances for scattered showers back into the region.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers that moved through last week and weekend have been beneficial for winter wheat but caused some delays to harvest. Dryness and above normal temperatures this week will benefit harvest while drier winter wheat areas will suffer that did not receive showers last week. A series of systems will move through this weekend into next week and should bring more scattered showers to the region, which would benefit winter wheat again.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend and may have caused some delays to the ongoing corn and soybean harvest but provided good moisture for some of the winter wheat areas. Showers will return across most areas again later this week. A series of systems will move through this weekend into early next week that will bring more scattered showers to the region. Soil moisture should increase for winter wheat.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend causing some delays to the cotton and soybean harvest but favoring winter wheat planting and establishment. Some showers will remain in the region through the week, especially over the north before it turns dry for the weekend and into next week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers started to move into the region over the weekend and will continue through much of the week, causing some harvest delays and quality issues, especially in Alabama.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather over the weekend will continue early this week. A couple of fronts will move through the region midweek into next week with some isolated showers. Models suggest rainfall to be light, not enough to reverse the drought conditions in the region. Temperatures below normal could cause some frosts as well, which would not be favorable either.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered, heavier showers fell over southern areas while isolated, lighter showers fell across central areas this weekend. Showers may increase over the next couple of days in central areas as a front moves into the region. Another system or two will develop over southern areas through the weekend with heavier showers continuing. Isolated showers should continue over central areas through the weekend as well. Conditions are mostly favorable as planting full-season corn and soybeans continues to increase, especially over southern areas. Reproductive to filling winter wheat continues to have mostly favorable conditions as well.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, but amounts were light where they were needed most in the west. Relatively dry conditions are expected for the week, which will keep corn and soybean planting slow. Winter wheat areas continue to have mostly favorable conditions, however.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell over western areas this weekend while eastern areas were drier. Showers in the west will be slow to move east through the week as a system gets pulled south into the Mediterranean by the end of the week. This will benefit most winter wheat areas as drier areas in the southeast will see much more beneficial showers by week's end and soil moisture is more favorable elsewhere on the continent.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Mostly dry conditions were noted over the weekend, along with below normal temperatures. Conditions favored harvest over winter wheat establishment and dry conditions through the week will continue to cause stresses to drier areas.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Showers over the weekend continued from last week, with mostly favorable conditions for reproductive to filling winter wheat and canola along with providing beneficial soil moisture for cotton and sorghum planting.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils as winter wheat and canola planting increases.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers continue over central cotton and soybean areas, benefiting soil moisture for some areas that have seen erratic rainfall this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers. Temperatures well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers south Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Thursday, mostly north. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures above to well above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Scattered showers Wednesday through Saturday, mostly north. Temperatures near to below normal through Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday.

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