DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a strong ridge from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes, a trough in the East, one off the Pacific Northwest, and an upper-level low in the Southwest.

The ridge will block the trough in the Pacific Northwest from advancing. But a weakness across the Midwest will allow the upper-level low in the Southwest to move into the Plains and then the Midwest this weekend into next week, which may get stuck in the Southeast

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the ridge continues over the country while a new trough looks to make its way to the West Coast toward the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal across most of the country, which looks to continue through most of the period and some cooler temperatures reaching the West Coast toward the end of next week. Some showers may linger over the Midwest in the middle of next week.

Another weak system could bring showers to the Plains and Midwest at the end of next week or weekend.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...102 AT ZAPATA TX

LOW THU...9 AT PETER SINKS UT AND MACKAY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...CORPUS CHRISTI TX 2.41 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a strong ridge from Hudson Bay into the Great Lakes, a trough in the East, one off the Pacific Northwest, and an upper-level low in the Southwest. The ridge will block the trough in the Pacific Northwest from advancing. But a weakness across the Midwest will allow the upper-level low in the Southwest to move into the Plains and then the Midwest this weekend into next week, which may get stuck in the Southeast. A new trough looks to make its way to the West Coast toward the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal across most of the country, which looks to continue through most of the period and some lower temperatures reaching the West Coast toward the end of next week. Some showers may linger over the Midwest in the middle of next week. Another weak system could bring showers to the Plains and Midwest at the end of next week or weekend.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Some scattered showers that moved through this week may have caused some harvest delays, but dryness will return with good harvest conditions again this weekend into next week. The drought continues, however.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers will continue in the region through Saturday before moving eastward. This will benefit winter wheat planting and establishment but cause some delays to the harvest. Dry conditions follow for next week and temperatures should remain above normal, which may cause heat stress to any areas that might be missed from the showers this week.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers will move through the region through Monday, causing some delays to harvest but filling soils for winter wheat. Some showers may continue into next week but would be isolated. With temperatures remaining above normal, conditions should favor harvest.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Some pop-up showers may develop through the weekend that could hinder harvest progress but would benefit winter wheat should it occur.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Warm and dry conditions are promoting maturing cotton and continued harvest progress. For the most part, these conditions should continue through the weekend with scattered showers returning next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system that moved through early this week brought only light showers. Benefits were minimal as more moisture is needed for winter wheat establishment in the intense drought. Systems that are moving through the region do not have enough power to generate significant rainfall and that remains true through next week.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue over central states while showers are developing over the south with a couple of systems moving through. The active weather is promoting soybean and full-season corn planting and favoring reproductive to filling wheat.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers will move through with another system over the weekend. Some areas are being missed, but the active pattern continues to favor corn and soybean planting overall, along with reproductive to filling wheat development.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): A couple of larger systems will move through western areas while the east will see more intermittent showers for the next week. Conditions are more favorable for harvest in the east and for winter grain establishment in the west, but conditions are mostly favorable overall in both sections of the continent.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Recent showers have been good for winter wheat establishment, though parts of Russia could still benefit from additional showers. A large blocking high pressure system will keep the region cool and dry through next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Winter wheat and canola development are progressing nicely with good irrigation reserves. And showers will continue to develop Thursday for eastern areas, benefiting crops and planting of cotton and sorghum as we head into October.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Scattered showers in northeast areas will add to soil moisture but will not help crops as they mature. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers continue over central cotton and soybean areas, benefiting soil moisture for some areas that have seen erratic rainfall this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers. Temperatures well above normal.

East: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday and Tuesday.

East: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated to scattered showers Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday through Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday through Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday through Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday through Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday, north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday and Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near normal Monday and Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, below normal Saturday through Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Isolated showers Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, below normal Saturday through Tuesday.

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