DTN Ag Weather Brief

METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a ridge developing over the middle of North America, a trough in the East, one in the West, and an upper-level low in the Southwest. The ridge will build across central Canada throughout the week and block the trough in the West from advancing, but have a weakness across Plains and Midwest. This will allow a piece of one of the troughs to move into the Plains and then the Midwest this weekend into next week. The rest of the western trough will be shredded apart.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, will expand across most of the continent this weekend into next week. A new trough looks to make its way to the West Coast toward the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but differ on how and when to develop showers across the Midwest. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal across most of the country, which looks to continue through the period. A system will try to escape under the ridge this weekend or early next week, bringing scattered showers from the Southern Plains into the Midwest.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...101 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...18 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...PORTLAND OR 0.93 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge developing over the middle of North America, a trough in the East, one in the West, and an upper-level low in the Southwest. The ridge will build across central Canada throughout the week and block the trough in the West from advancing but have a weakness across the Plains and Midwest. This will allow a piece of one of the troughs to move into the Plains and then the Midwest this weekend into next week. The rest of the western trough will be shredded apart, and the ridge will expand across most of the continent this weekend into next week. A new trough looks to make its way to the West Coast toward the end of next week.

The U.S. and European models are in fair agreement but differ on how and when to develop showers across the Midwest. I will use a blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal across most of the country, which looks to continue through the period. A system will try to escape under the ridge this weekend or early next week, bringing scattered showers from the Southern Plains into the Midwest.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry and warm conditions were noted over the weekend, excellent for harvest progress, but worsening the drought. A system will move into the region on Wednesday and Thursday with scattered showers, but the effects should be short-lived. Meanwhile, temperatures will remain well above normal for the next 10 days.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Dry and warm conditions were noted over the weekend, excellent for harvest progress, but continuing to sap soil moisture for winter wheat. A weakness in a developing ridge will allow showers to bubble up on Wednesday and continue through at least this weekend. That could provide much better soil moisture for winter wheat but will hamper harvest progress a bit. Temperatures will remain elevated where showers do not occur, which may cause further heat stress.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Drier conditions and increasing temperatures are helping soils that got soggy last week to dry out, promoting harvest. Showers will move into western areas late this week or weekend, then through the rest of the region this weekend or early next week. This could hinder harvest progress should this system be able to slip under the ridge in Canada.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Dry and hot conditions were noted over the weekend, benefiting harvest of cotton and soybeans. Some pop-up showers may develop over the next week that could hinder harvest progress but would benefit winter wheat should it occur.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Warm and dry conditions over the weekend promoted maturing cotton and continued harvest progress. For the most part, these conditions should continue for the next week.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): A system moving through early this week should provide at least some showers to the region. Benefits will be minimal as more moisture is needed for winter wheat establishment in the intense drought.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers developed over central states over the weekend, but more are needed to officially start the wet season in many places. Whether official or not, scattered showers over central areas this week should promote soybean planting. Scattered showers will come with a couple of systems across the south this week, which will be beneficial for all crops.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry weather was noted this weekend, and more is needed for corn and soybean planting and establishment. Two systems will develop with scattered showers this week, but some areas look like they will be missed. An active pattern is in place, however, and there will be more systems coming up.

EUROPE (WINTER WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers moved through western areas this weekend while eastern areas dried out a bit. The continent looks to see a series of storm systems over the next week or two, with the greatest chances for rain across the west. This will be beneficial for those that have been planting winter wheat and grains but will hinder corn harvest. Areas in the east will have better harvest conditions, while soil moisture is still good for most places for winter wheat and grains.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, benefiting winter wheat development, but holding back progress on corn and sunflower harvest. A large blocking high pressure system will keep the region cool and dry this week and Russia continues to need more rain for winter wheat.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/COTTON/SORGHUM): Drier weather continued for much of the country's wheat belt over the weekend. Still, winter wheat and canola development are progressing nicely with good irrigation reserves. Showers look to increase on Tuesday into Thursday for eastern areas, benefiting crops and planting of cotton and sorghum as we head into October.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Scattered showers in northeast areas will add to soil moisture but will not help crops as they mature. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers continue over central cotton and soybean areas, benefiting soil moisture for some areas that have seen erratic rainfall this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated showers east ending Tuesday morning. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Isolated showers west Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday through Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Wednesday. Isolated to scattered showers Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, below normal Saturday.

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