Commodities Market Impact Weather

Good Harvest and Drying Weather

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drying conditions with increasing temperatures across the U.S. and better planting conditions in Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Friday.

IMPROVING HARVEST CONDITIONS IN MIDWEST

A system brought some pockets of moderate to heavy rain to the Midwest that have likely delayed harvest progress this week, particularly in the east. There will be some spotty showers Friday and Saturday as well. Soil moisture has become better for winter wheat establishment. Most of the region will see a drying and warming trend starting this weekend with good drying and harvest conditions.

SHOWERS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS

A developing ridge will keep the Southern Plains dry through at least early next week. This should allow for some better conditions for harvest. Soil moisture continues to be relatively low for much of the region and showers are needed for emerging winter wheat. The ridge may slip far enough eastward by the middle of next week to allow showers back into the region, which would be beneficial for wheat but cause some harvest delays.

HARVEST CONDITIONS IMPROVING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Outside of a few isolated showers Friday morning, the Northern Plains continue to be dry through early next week. Temperatures will trend above normal next week to help with the drying process and help producers get out to harvest more. Some showers will likely develop in the middle of next week, but the drought will continue and so should harvest.

GOOD HARVEST WEATHER FOR DELTA

Isolated to scattered showers moved through the Delta earlier this week, delaying maturing and harvest of cotton and soybeans, but favoring winter wheat planting and establishment. The region now turns drier to finish out September with better conditions for harvest.

SOUTHEAST SEEING IMPROVING HARVEST CONDITIONS

Scattered moderate to heavy showers moved through the Southeast over the last week, causing some quality issues and delays to cotton harvest. Drier conditions through much of next week are expected to aid in maturing crops and harvest.

SHOWERS CONTINUING IN THE BLACK SEA

Scattered showers will continue across Ukraine and western Russia through the weekend as a couple of systems move through. This will cause some delays for harvest of corn and sunflowers but will have a positive impact on soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. More showers are needed in Russia, however, even after this rainfall.

SHOWERS FORECAST FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL

Southern Brazil has seen beneficial rainfall for winter wheat, and corn and soybean planting and establishment. Central states are still awaiting the start of the wet season. A weak front that moves north could produce some beneficial showers for central states this weekend into next week, and we may see some significant planting progress if showers are widespread enough.

MORE RAIN NEEDED IN ARGENTINA

Wheat in Argentina has received beneficial rainfall lately but more is needed for corn and soybean planting and establishment. A system may bring showers next week, but models do not suggest overly widespread coverage or heavy amounts that are needed.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick