MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Favorable harvest weather in the U.S. and planting weather in Brazil are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.
IMPROVING HARVEST CONDITIONS IN MIDWEST
A system continues to bring rounds of showers through eastern areas of the Midwest Thursday. There have been some pockets of moderate to heavy rain that have likely delayed harvest progress this week, particularly in the east. There could be some spotty showers Friday and Saturday as well. Soil moisture had been declining for winter wheat but showers this week should help to sustain good soil moisture for establishment. Most of the region will see a drying and warming trend starting this weekend, but eastern areas may find some isolated showers next week.
DRYING FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
A front brought limited showers to the Southern Plains earlier this week and the region will be going on a drier trend to end September as a ridge develops in the region. This should allow for some better conditions for harvest. Soil moisture continues to be relatively low for much of the region and showers are needed for emerging winter wheat, but temperatures going above normal will likely stress young plants. Models try to bring showers into the region next week despite the strong ridge, so the forecast may change.
HARVEST CONDITIONS IMPROVING FOR NORTHERN PLAINS
The Northern Plains will be on a drier trend at least into the middle of next week. Temperatures will be somewhat variable for the next few days, but trend above normal next week to help with the drying process and help producers get out to harvest more. The drought will continue, however.
GOOD HARVEST WEATHER FOR DELTA
Isolated to scattered showers moved through the Delta since the weekend, delaying maturing and harvest of cotton and soybeans, but favoring winter wheat planting and establishment. The region now turns drier to finish out September with better conditions for harvest.
SOUTHEAST SEEING IMPROVING HARVEST CONDITIONS
Scattered moderate to heavy showers moved through the Southeast over the last week, causing some quality issues and delays to cotton harvest. Drier conditions are expected to aid in maturing crops and harvest for the next week.
SHOWERS CONTINUE IN THE BLACK SEA
Scattered showers will continue in Ukraine and southwestern Russia over the next couple of days as a trough spins over the region and another comes in for the weekend. This will cause some delays for harvest of corn and sunflowers but will have a positive impact on soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. More showers are needed in Russia, however, even after this rainfall.
SHOWERS FORECAST FOR CENTRAL BRAZIL
Southern Brazil has seen beneficial rainfall for winter wheat, corn and soybean planting and establishment recently. Central states are still awaiting the start of the wet season. A weak front that moves north should produce some beneficial showers for central states this weekend into next week and we may see some significant planting progress if showers are widespread enough.
MORE RAIN NEEDED IN ARGENTINA
Wheat in Argentina has received beneficial rainfall lately, but more is needed for corn and soybean planting and establishment. A system may bring showers next week, but models do not suggest overly widespread or heavy amounts that are needed.
John Baranick can be reached at email@example.com
(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.