DTN Fundamentally Speaking

Interesting to note that despite damages caused by Hurricane Ida to the U.S. exports infrastructure, USDA hiked this year's corn export projection by 75 million bushels (mb) to 2.475 billion bushels (bb) in last week's WASDE report based on expectations of more corn sales to Canada and Mexico, two destinations where grain can be transported via rail and trucks, thereby avoiding the current problems with the Gulf.

Similarly, in soybeans where USDA notes that while U.S. soybean exports will get off to a slower pace in the new marketing year due to the aftermath of Ida, 2021/22 U.S. soybean export projections were increased by 35 mb to 2.090 bb due to larger crop supplies resulting in lower forecasted prices.

This graphic shows U.S. corn and soybean exports in million bushels sold at start of marketing year September 1 on the left-hand axis and as percent of the USDA's September WASDE export projection on the right-hand axis.

As the new year begins for corn, the U.S. already has 958 mb worth of corn on the books, the highest amount ever for this point in the marketing year.

That represents 38.7% of the recently revised export projection of 2.475 bb which is at least the second highest amount ever going back to the 2000/01 season with only a 41.1% figure in the 2013/14 year higher.

We should note that that strong early season export pace back then presaged a final corn export figure that year more than 56% above that September 2013 WASDE estimate.

As for soybeans, the current cumulative sales on the books at the start of the new year at 828 mb is not too bad but trails the year ago figure of 1.177 bb by 30%.

This represents only 39.6% of last week's WASDE projection vs 55.3% last year and is about equal to the long-term average of 38%.

These figures dovetail pretty well with the general narrative that there is more possible upside for U.S. corn exports to attain or even exceed the current USDA projections than soybeans though much will depend on the appetite of China for U.S. production and row crop output this coming season out of South America.

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