DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...106 AT ZAPATA TX

LOW SUN...26 AT YELLOWSTONE NP WY

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...HUNTSVILLE AL 3.46 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a ridge in the East, a trough in the Rockies, a ridge in the Eastern Pacific, and another trough in the Gulf of Alaska. All features will head eastward through the week, but the ridge may have some sticking power in the west by the weekend and strengthen over central North America next week.

The U.S. and European models are quite similar so I will use a blend.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be above normal in the west and near to below normal elsewhere. Temperatures will go on a warming trend as the ridge takes over by the end of September. A system will go through the Great Lakes with a few showers this weekend, but it will likely be much drier for most places next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers started to move back into the region on Sunday as the next system started to move into the Plains. Showers will continue on Monday, but then will turn much drier. Temperatures will be somewhat variable, but trend above normal to help with the drying process and help producers get out to harvest more.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): There were some isolated showers on Friday, but most areas stayed dry this weekend. A front will bring some showers in places through Tuesday then it will be much drier to end September and allow for some better conditions for harvest. Soil moisture continues to be relatively low for much of the region and showers are needed for emerging winter wheat.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): There were some isolated showers over the weekend, but most areas were dry and found good conditions for maturing corn and soybeans and the continued harvest. Soil moisture continues to be mostly favorable for winter wheat development but is declining. A system will bring rounds of showers through most of the region through Wednesday with some showers potentially hanging on over eastern areas on Thursday. After this system moves through, it will turn drier with better conditions for harvest again. There could be some spotty showers this weekend, however.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated to scattered showers fell over the region this weekend, delaying maturing and harvest of cotton and soybeans, but favoring winter wheat planting and establishment. Showers will continue in the region through early Wednesday before the region turns drier to finish out September.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered moderate to heavy showers fell over the weekend, causing some quality issues and delays to cotton harvest, especially over Alabama and southwest Georgia. Showers will continue in the region until a front slips through on Wednesday night. Drier conditions will then be expected to aid in maturing crops and harvest.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers moved through this weekend, but the heavy rain stayed over the West Coast with only light amounts moving through the region. The showers were beneficial, but the incredible drought continues, and the region is in desperate need of more showers for winter wheat establishment. A ridge in the region should keep the region dry for the next week, however.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southern states continued to see showers over the weekend, benefiting winter wheat and corn and soybean planting and establishment. Central states are still awaiting the start of the wet season. A weak front that moves north could produce some beneficial showers for central states this weekend, but the daily rains of the wet season appear to be delayed by at least another week.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions were noted over the weekend with some showers expected late Sunday to continue into Tuesday before the country goes drier again. Wheat has received beneficial rainfall lately, but more is needed for corn and soybean planting and establishment.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system continued to bring showers to eastern areas this weekend while another was moving into western areas on Sunday. It has been a little too rainy for widespread harvest but is favoring winter wheat planting and establishment, especially across the south. Conditions will be mixed this week with areas of showers scattered throughout the week. Winter wheat will benefit while delays will be possible for summer crops.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Scattered showers moved through this weekend and will continue through the week as a trough spins over the region and another comes in for the weekend. This will cause some delays for harvest of corn and sunflowers but will have a positive impact on soil moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. More showers are needed in Russia, however.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): It was fairly dry over the weekend and that continues for much of the country's wheat belt over the next week. Still, winter wheat and canola development are progressing nicely with good irrigation reserves. Showers may increase next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS/WHEAT): Conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Scattered showers in northeast areas will add to soil moisture but will not help crops as they mature. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers moved back into central cotton and soybean areas, benefiting soil moisture for some areas that have seen erratic rainfall this year.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Isolated showers, mostly south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Monday, south Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Temperatures above to well above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday.

East: Isolated showers through Wednesday. Isolated showers east Thursday. Scattered showers Friday night. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday through Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, above normal Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to well above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday and Sunday, above normal Monday and Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers, heavy in spots. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday, north Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers in Mato Grosso Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near to below normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

John Baranick