DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...112 AT DEATH VALLEY CA AND OCOTILLO WELLS CA

LOW TUE...16 AT MACKAY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...BATON ROUGE LA 2.63 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a broad ridge across the southern half of the U.S., a trough in eastern Canada, and another moving into western Canada. The ridge will shift to the East, but the parade of troughs will continue to move through Canada through next week.

The U.S. and European models have the same sort of pattern but with distinct differences in how to develop systems. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal for most areas with some below normal temperatures spreading through the West and potentially the Plains during the period. A system will move through much of the country next week with scattered showers and potential for heavy rain.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several systems will move through over the next 10 days, but showers look to be isolated for the most part. This should favor maturing crops and early harvest, but the drought continues. Showers early next week may be on the heavier side, but that is not certain yet.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers will be possible through the next week, but most areas should stay dry while temperatures remain above normal. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and harvest but deplete soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. A system early next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but that is not certain yet.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated to occasionally scattered showers will continue over the next 10 days as a few systems move through while temperatures will continue to be above normal. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest. Soil moisture is still favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment as well. A system early-to-mid next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but that is not certain yet.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Tropical Depression Nicholas and its remnants could bring heavy rainfall to southern portions of the region through Thursday, which could cause damage to maturing cotton and soybeans. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible through the next week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Tropical Storm Nicholas could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the region later this week. Otherwise, isolated showers over the next week will be possible and could affect maturing cotton as well.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Drought continues to have a tight grip on the region. Winter wheat establishment is unlikely to find much success until more favorable moisture develops. Several storm systems will move through over the next couple of weeks but with only limited precipitation.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southern states will stay active over the next week as a front remains stalled. This will favor winter wheat and recharge soil moisture for corn and soybeans. Central states are still awaiting the start of the wet season. Soybean planting restrictions lift this week but will need more moisture for seed-to-soil contact in these central areas before planting picks up. Models are suggesting it to stay relatively dry through the end of September with only isolated showers in Mato Grosso at times.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions are expected for the next week. Winter wheat has gotten some moisture lately but could use more as it gets further into reproduction. And more moisture is needed for corn and soybean planting as well.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): A system is slowly moving through the continent this week with scattered showers. Drier conditions would be favorable for maturing and harvest of crops to the north, but the showers will benefit winter wheat planting and establishment, especially over the south where it has been drier.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Dry weather this week has favored maturing and harvest of summer crops, but the region could use more moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. This is especially true across Russia, where it has been overly dry this summer. Some showers will move through over the weekend and into next week, which could help with that.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Favorable conditions continue for reproductive winter wheat and canola in most areas. Showers would still be beneficial in northern New South Wales and Queensland, but irrigation supplies are adequate.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Outside of some flooding which may have occurred in July, conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Scattered showers in northeast areas will add to soil moisture but will not help crops as they mature. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers moved back into central cotton and soybean areas, benefiting soil moisture for some areas that have seen erratic rainfall this year. Showers continue to be on a more sporadic nature through the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday through Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday, above normal Thursday through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers, heavier south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Heavy rain possible south through Thursday. Temperatures above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Isolated showers west. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday, near normal Sunday.

John Baranick