DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a broad ridge across the southern half of the U.S., a trough leaving the Northeast, one moving into central Canada, and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will shift to the East, but the parade of troughs will continue to move through Canada through next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the eastern ridge will remain in place but the parade of troughs will continue across at least western North America.

The U.S. and European models have the same sort of pattern but with distinct differences in how to develop systems. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal for most areas with some below normal temperatures spreading through the West and potentially the Plains during the period. A system will move through much of the country next week with scattered showers and potential for heavy rain.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...116 AT OCOTILLO WELLS CA

LOW MON...23 AT COPPER BASIN ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...CORPUS CHRISTI TX 2.38 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a broad ridge across the southern half of the U.S., a trough leaving the Northeast, one moving into central Canada, and another in the Gulf of Alaska. The ridge will shift to the east, but the parade of troughs will continue to move through Canada through next week.

The U.S. and European models have the same sort of pattern but with distinct differences in how to develop systems. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to above normal for most areas with some below normal temperatures spreading through the West and potentially the Plains during the period. A system will move through much of the country next week with scattered showers and potential for heavy rain.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through on Monday with some pockets of moderate rainfall. Several systems will move through over the next 10 days, but showers look to be isolated for the most part. This should favor maturing crops and early harvest, but the drought continues. Showers early next week may be on the heavier side, but that is not certain yet.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Some isolated showers will be possible through the next week, but most areas should stay dry while temperatures remain above normal. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and harvest but deplete soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. A system early next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region but that is not certain yet.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS/WINTER WHEAT): Isolated showers moved across northern areas this weekend and Monday with some pockets of moderate rainfall. Isolated to occasionally scattered showers will continue over the next 10 days as a few systems move through while temperatures will continue to be above normal. This will favor maturing corn and soybeans and early harvest. Soil moisture is still favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment as well. A system early-to-mid next week could bring some more widespread showers to the region, but that is not certain yet.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Tropical Storm Nicholas could bring heavy rainfall to southern portions of the region through Thursday that could cause damage to maturing cotton and soybeans. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible through the week.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Tropical Storm Nicholas could bring heavy rainfall to portions of the region later this week. Otherwise, isolated showers will be possible and could affect maturing cotton as well.

PACIFIC NORTHWEST (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers fell over the weekend but amounts were light as drought continues to have a tight grip on the region. Winter wheat establishment is unlikely to find much success until more favorable moisture develops. Several storm systems will move through over the next couple of weeks but with only limited precipitation.

BRAZIL (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Southern states will stay active over the next week as another system moves through and a front stalls. This will favor winter wheat and recharge soil moisture for corn and soybeans. Central states are still awaiting the start of the wet season. Soybean planting restrictions lift this week but will need more moisture for seed-to-soil contact in these central areas before planting picks up. Models are suggesting it will stay relatively dry through the end of September with only isolated showers in Mato Grosso at times.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Dry conditions are expected for the next week. Winter wheat has gotten some moisture lately but could use more as it gets further into reproduction. And more moisture is needed for corn and soybean planting as well.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CORN): Isolated showers moved through this weekend and another system will slowly move through the continent this week with scattered showers. Drier conditions would be favorable for maturing and harvest of crops to the north, but the showers will benefit winter wheat planting and establishment, especially over the south where it has been drier.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Isolated showers moved through on Sunday but there were many dry areas. Dry weather is anticipated for most areas this week. This will favor maturing and harvest of summer crops, but the region could use more moisture for winter wheat planting and establishment. This is especially true across Russia, where it has been overly dry this summer.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Favorable conditions continue for reproductive winter wheat and canola in most areas. Showers would still be beneficial in northern New South Wales and Queensland, but irrigation supplies are adequate.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Outside of some flooding which may have occurred in July, conditions have been mostly favorable for corn and soybeans this season. Scattered showers in northeast areas will add to soil moisture but will not help crops as they mature. Occasional showers on the North China Plain are prepping soils for winter wheat and canola planting.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers moved back into central cotton and soybean areas, benefiting soil moisture for some areas that have seen erratic rainfall this year. Showers continue to be on a more sporadic nature through the next week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers north. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday through Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday through Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Wednesday, above normal Thursday through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday. Isolated to scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday through Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Heavy rain possible south through Thursday. Temperatures above normal through Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures above normal Sunday through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Saturday. Temperatures above normal Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, above normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers west through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to below normal through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Saturday.

John Baranick