Commodities Market Impact Weather

Good Early Harvest Conditions in US

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Drier and warmer conditions across much of the United States and improving conditions across South America are the weather factors holding the market's attention Thursday.

LIMITED SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

Conditions are improving for drydown and early harvest of corn and two weeks, showers will be more limited, scattered, and light for the most part unless a front stalls in the region. Soil moisture is still favorable for winter wheat planting and establishment.

SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYING DRIER AND HOT

Recent rainfall in Kansas will be good for winter wheat planting and establishment, but sporadic drought has been popping up around the Southern Plains lately and more showers will be necessary to end it. Drier conditions and above-normal temperatures during the next week will benefit drydown of corn and soybeans and early harvest.

NORTHERN PLAINS SEEING LIMITED SHOWERS

Recent showers in the Northern Plains have put a dent in the ongoing drought, but it still remains throughout the region. A few systems will pass through during the next 10 days, but shower chances will be lower and more scattered. This will favor drydown and early harvest of corn and soybeans, but drought does not look to get wiped out anytime soon.

BENEFICIALLY DRY FOR THE DELTA

Dry weather is expected in the Delta during the next week, favoring maturing soybeans and cotton. Showers may start to pop back up toward the middle of next week.

SOUTHEAST SHOWERS MAY AFFECT COTTON

Scattered showers are moving out of the Southeast Thursday as Tropical Depression Mindy exits the region. The rains that have occurred since Wednesday may have caused some damage to open cotton bolls.

EASTERN BLACK SEA DRIER AGAIN

Drier conditions in the Black Sea region this week are favoring drydown of summer crops and planting of winter wheat. Soil moisture in Ukraine is much better than in Russia, especially in the Volga Valley where dry conditions during the summer have limited soil moisture for winter wheat establishment. Some isolated showers will be possible during the weekend into early next week, but no significant widespread showers are forecast for the next 10 days.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAINFALL CONTINUING

A system has been producing scattered showers across southern Brazil this week that end on Thursday. Some showers have even developed over Mato Grosso, but the start to the wet season is still a couple of weeks away. Winter wheat is seeing improved conditions as it gets further into reproduction and fill while some full-season corn is being planted. Soybeans are restricted from planting for another few days at least so the showers coming to southern areas will benefit soils before planting begins.

SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR ARGENTINA

A system is bringing more showers to Argentina that should be helpful for developing to reproductive winter wheat. Soils still need more moisture for planting soybean and corn but it has improved. More showers are expected to develop this weekend into early next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick