DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...109 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS CA

LOW WED...29 AT BODIE CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...ALTOONA PA 3.69 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the West and a ridge in eastern Canada. A couple of disturbances around the trough will pulse through western North America through the weekend with the last pulse moving through the U.S.-Canada border in the middle of next week. The trough may stall in the eastern U.S. late next week and weekend. Behind the trough, a ridge will rebuild in the Western U.S.

The U.S. and European models have some differences. I will favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to below normal in the Northern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. Lower temperatures may spread back south through the rest of the Plains and possibly the Midwest after the last system moves through with moderate showers across the northern tier of the country next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system should bring moderate to heavy showers across the region on Thursday and Friday. Coverage with this system looks fairly widespread, but there will undoubtedly be some holes. Any rainfall would be good for filling corn and soybeans. There will be two more systems that follow closely behind it through early next week to provide more rainfall as well and could plug up the holes.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across Oklahoma and Texas with isolated showers in Kansas and Nebraska for the next couple of days. A frontal boundary sweeps through the region Friday with more scattered showers across the north. The region may even stay active into next week with a couple of systems moving across the north as well. Any rainfall would be good for filling corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some isolated showers will continue Thursday, but most areas remain dry. A system should bring some widespread rainfall to the region Friday through the weekend, being heavier across the west. Another two systems will follow behind it, going through next week with better chances across the west as well. Any rainfall will benefit filling corn and soybeans, especially across the drier northwestern areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible through the weekend and should help to alleviate some of the drier areas that have shown up recently for filling cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Tropical Storm Fred produced heavy rainfall through eastern Alabama, Georgia, and the western Carolinas earlier this week. Some flooding was noted and could have been damaging to cotton. Scattered showers will continue through the weekend with more isolated showers next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system slowly moving through this week is bringing pulses of scattered showers. It will likely not have any noticeable impact on wheat and canola but could improve conditions for corn and soybeans in the east. More showers are expected with two more systems into the middle of next week. The rains will disrupt harvest conditions, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A front settling into Rio Grande do Sul will bring some isolated showers over the weekend. Winter wheat that is getting further into reproduction still needs more moisture across southern areas as soil moisture remains on the lower end of normal for most areas. That front will be more active next week as it moves northward and could produce beneficial rainfall.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures well above normal are falling as a front slowly slips north this week. The front may produce some isolated showers, but they are not looking widespread. Winter wheat could use more moisture as it develops further. Below normal temperatures are likely with a stronger front next week.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Recent dryness or only isolated showers have been favorable for winter wheat harvest while there is mostly good soil moisture for spring and summer crops. The isolated showers continue for the next several days with the next best chance for widespread rainfall coming with a system slowly moving through the continent this weekend into next week. Overall conditions remain favorable in most areas.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): The Volga Valley of Russia has been hot and dry for the last few weeks with stressful conditions for spring wheat and corn. A front is moving through Ukraine over the next couple of days but will probably lose a lot of its shower activity as it passes through Russia this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will continue to be hot in western Russia until this system moves through, as wheat and corn conditions decline.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Isolated showers in eastern areas will likely remain the case though over the next several days. There is a large contrast in crop conditions with poor conditions across the west and south and good conditions in the northeast that does not look to change any time soon.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Mostly dry conditions continue this week and northeastern areas of New South Wales and Queensland could use more moisture while the rest of the crop areas are doing very well. Southern areas may see isolated showers. Irrigation levels remain adequate in the northeast, but more rainfall would be very helpful.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across the wetter corn and soybean areas for the next week, keeping soil moisture high, but unfavorably so in some areas. Most of the flooded areas from July have had a chance to dry out a bit more, but there remains some concern about production for some areas.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): The monsoon had become a little less active across western and southern areas recently, but a monsoon low will spread showers back toward the west over the next few days. It may be temporary as it breaks down this weekend, causing some concern about soil moisture for developing cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers south, heavy rain in eastern Ohio. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers south Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday night through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

East: Isolated showers east through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Tuesday through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday through Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday and Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday through Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday and Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday through Thursday, near normal Friday and Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday through Monday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday, below normal Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday, below normal Monday.

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