DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...118 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS CA

LOW TUE...34 AT BODIE CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...ASHEVILLE NC 3.30 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough building in the west and a ridge building in eastern Canada. A couple of disturbances around the trough will pulse through western North America through the weekend with the last pulse moving through Canada in the middle of next week. Behind the trough, a ridge will rebuild in the western U.S.

The U.S. and European models have some differences. I will favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to below normal in the Northern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. Lower temperatures may spread back south through the rest of the Plains and possibly the Midwest after the last system moves through. A smaller system will move through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest early next week. Another system will move across the northern tier of the country next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system developing in the region may not have much precipitation with it Wednesday but should bring scattered showers across the region on Thursday and Friday. Coverage with this system looks fairly widespread, but there will undoubtedly be some holes. Any rainfall would be good for filling corn and soybeans. There will be two more systems that follow closely behind it through early next week to provide more rainfall as well and could plug up the holes.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across Oklahoma and Texas with isolated showers in Kansas and Nebraska for the next couple of days. A frontal boundary sweeps through the region late in the week with more scattered showers across the north. The region may even stay active into next week with a couple of systems moving across the north as well. Any rainfall would be good for filling corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some showers will drift northward over the eastern Midwest the next couple of days while the west stays dry. Rain from Fred's remnants is moving through eastern Ohio where some flooding may occur. Models disagree with a system that will come through this weekend but should bring some widespread rainfall to the region. Two more systems will follow behind it, going through next week with better chances across the west. Any rainfall will benefit filling corn and soybeans, especially across the drier northwestern areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Some dry spots have popped up recently and could use more moisture. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible through the weekend, however, and should help those drier areas for filling cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Tropical Storm Fred produced heavy rainfall through eastern Alabama, Georgia, and the western Carolinas earlier this week. Some flooding was noted and could have been damaging to cotton. Scattered showers will continue through the weekend with more isolated showers next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): A system slowly moving through this week will bring pulses of scattered showers. It will likely not have any noticeable impact on wheat and canola but could improve conditions for corn and soybeans in the east. More showers are expected with two more systems into the middle of next week. The rains will disrupt harvest conditions, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions are likely for most of the country through the week, with slight chances for showers over southern areas later this week and weekend as a front settles into Rio Grande do Sul. Winter wheat that is getting further into reproduction still needs more moisture across southern areas as soil moisture remains on the lower end of normal for most areas.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Temperatures above normal will fall as a front slowly slips north this week. The front may produce some isolated showers but they are not looking widespread. Winter wheat could use more moisture as it develops further.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Recent dryness or only isolated showers have been favorable for winter wheat harvest while there is mostly good soil moisture for spring and summer crops. The isolated showers continue for the next several days with the next best chance for widespread rainfall coming with a system slowly moving through the continent this weekend into next week. Overall conditions remain favorable in most areas.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): The Volga Valley of Russia has been hot and dry for the last few weeks with stressful conditions for spring wheat and corn. A front is moving through Ukraine over the next couple of days but will probably lose a lot of its shower activity as it passes through Russia this weekend into early next week. Temperatures will continue to be hot in western Russia until this system moves through, as wheat and corn conditions decline.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Isolated showers in eastern areas will likely remain the case through over the next several days. There is a large contrast in crop conditions with poor conditions across the west and south and good conditions in the northeast that does not look to change any time soon.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Mostly dry conditions continue this week and northeastern areas of New South Wales and Queensland could use more moisture while the rest of the crop areas are doing very well. Southern areas may see isolated showers. Irrigation levels remain adequate in the northeast, but more rainfall would be very helpful.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across the wetter corn and soybean areas for the next week, keeping soil moisture high, but unfavorably so in some areas. Most of the flooded areas from July have had a chance to dry out a bit more, but there remains some concern about production for some areas.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): The monsoon has become a little less active across western and southern areas, but a monsoon low will likely spread showers back toward the west this week. It may be temporary as it breaks down this weekend, causing some concern about soil moisture for developing cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers south Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

East: Moderate to heavy rain east Wednesday. Isolated showers east through Friday. Scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday through Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday and Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Thursday, near normal Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday and Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Sunday.

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