DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH SUN...122 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW SUN...34 AT STANLEY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM SUNDAY...CHARLESTON SC 4.08 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in western Canada, an upper low in the central U.S., and a ridge moving into eastern Canada. The western trough will dig into the western U.S. while the eastern Canada ridge will strengthen this week. A couple of disturbances around the trough will pulse through western North America through the weekend with the last pulse moving through Canada in the middle of next week. Behind the trough, a ridge will rebuild in the Western U.S.

The U.S. and European models do not agree on how to treat the trough, its disturbances, or the building ridge behind it in the Western U.S. I will favor the European, noting that the forecast may change significantly due to uncertainty.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Saturday will be near to below normal in the Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. This general pattern may continue into the middle of next week. Scattered showers will continue across the south next weekend with drying conditions next week. Models disagree on when and how, but a system should traverse the Midwest with scattered showers this weekend. A smaller system may move through right behind that system this weekend into early next week. And a third system could move across the northern tier of the country next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A few isolated showers fell this weekend, but most areas remained dry. Dry conditions likely last on Monday before a system begins to impact the region on Tuesday. This system may not have much precipitation with it over the first couple of days as it organizes in the Rockies but should bring scattered showers across the region on Thursday and Friday. Models disagree with the system and there is a lot of uncertainty, but any rainfall would be good for filling corn and soybeans. There may be two more systems that follow closely behind it through early next week to provide more rainfall as well.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across Oklahoma and Texas this weekend, with isolated showers in central Kansas and Nebraska. This will be the general pattern over the next few days until a frontal boundary sweeps through the region late in the week with more scattered showers across the north. The region may even stay active into next week with a couple of systems moving across the north as well. Any rainfall would be good for filling corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Some scattered showers fell across eastern areas with dry weather elsewhere this weekend. Some showers will drift northward over the eastern Midwest over the next couple of days while the west stays dry. Models disagree with a system that will come through likely this weekend but should bring some widespread rainfall to the region Friday through the weekend. And another two systems may follow behind it, going through next week. Any rainfall will benefit filling corn and soybeans, especially across the drier northwestern areas.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers moved through over the weekend, but did not hit every area. Some dry spots have popped up recently and could use more moisture. Isolated to scattered showers will continue to be possible for the next week, however, and should help those drier areas for filling cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers continued over the weekend as the region braces for the impacts from Tropical Storm Fred. The system should make landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Monday afternoon or evening with heavy rainfall moving through eastern Alabama, Georgia, and the western Carolinas into the middle of the week. Some flooding will be possible, most notably near the Gulf Coast. Scattered showers will continue after the storm leaves through the weekend.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Hot and dry weather continued this weekend, stressing any remaining immature crops. A system slowly moving through this week will bring pulses of scattered showers. It will likely not have any noticeable impact on wheat and canola but could improve conditions for corn and soybeans in the east. The rains will disrupt harvest conditions, however.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A stalled front brought some showers to Parana over the weekend, but most areas remained dry. The showers may have been beneficial for some of the wheat crop while delaying corn harvest. Dry conditions are likely for most of the country through the week, with slight chances for showers over southern areas later this week and weekend as another front goes through. Winter wheat still needs more moisture across southern areas as soil moisture remains on the lower end of normal for most areas.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions with frosts in some areas continue to hinder growth on winter wheat. Temperatures will increase this week before a front moves through in the middle to end of the week. The front may produce some isolated showers. but they are not looking widespread.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Mostly dry conditions were noted over the weekend with some isolated showers in the UK and in the northeast. The dryness is favorable for winter wheat harvest while there is mostly good soil moisture for spring and summer crops. A system will move through central and eastern areas early this week with more isolated showers continuing into next week across the continent. Overall conditions remain favorable in most areas.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A deteriorating upper-level low still brought some good rainfall to far eastern Ukraine and far western Russia over the weekend. It missed the Volga Valley, which has been hot and dry for the last few weeks. The majority of the region will have to wait until a front moves through Ukraine mid-to-late week, but will probably miss much of Russia again. Temperatures will continue to be hot in western Russia through the week as wheat and corn conditions continue to decline in the region.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Isolated showers fell in eastern areas this weekend and that will likely remain the case through much of this week. There is a large contrast in crop conditions with poor conditions across the west and south and good conditions in the northeast that does not look to change any time soon.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Mostly dry conditions were noted this week and northeastern areas of New South Wales and Queensland could use more moisture while the rest of the crop areas are doing very well. Drier conditions continue this week with periodic chances for southern areas to see isolated showers. Irrigation levels remain adequate in the northeast, but more rainfall would be very helpful.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across the wetter corn and soybean areas for the next week, keeping soil moisture high, but unfavorably so in some areas. Most of the flooded areas from July have had a chance to dry out a bit more, but there remains some concern about production for some areas.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): The monsoon has become a little less active across western and southern areas, but a monsoon low will likely spread showers back toward the west this week. It may be temporary as it breaks down this weekend, causing some concern about soil moisture for developing cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Mostly dry. Temperatures rising near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers east. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Mostly dry through Wednesday. Isolated showers south Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south Monday, near to above normal Tuesday through Friday.

East: Isolated showers east through Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers south, isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to above normal Monday and Tuesday, near to below normal Wednesday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Temperatures near normal through Friday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated to scattered showers Saturday and Sunday. Mostly dry Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures near to above normal Saturday through Wednesday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers south Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Isolated showers south Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Friday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal Tuesday through Thursday, near to below normal Friday.

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