DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...117 AT DEATH VALLEY CA AND STOVEPIPE WELLS CA

LOW WED...25 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...WAUSAU WI 2.64 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in central Canada with ridges off the West Coast and eastern Canada. The trough complex will try to push eastward this weekend but will weaken when it does. The western ridge will slide eastward next week, moving into eastern Canada, allowing another trough to move into western North America. This general trough-west and ridge-east pattern is expected to persist next week.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement with the pattern but not the details. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Thursday will be near to above normal across most of the country and near to below normal in the Pacific Northwest. Below normal temperatures may expand into the Plains next week. Scattered showers will continue across the south next week. Another system may move into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains with scattered showers next week, moving into the Midwest toward the end of next week. And we will have to watch for Tropical Depression Fred for the Southeast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers left some holes across portions of the region as drought continues to impact filling corn and soybeans. The pattern stays drier through the weekend with continued stress. A trough moving into the West could produce periods of scattered showers next week, with at least one good chance to benefit filling crops.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been scattered lately, leaving some holes where dryness continues to creep in. A front in the region will be somewhat active over the next couple of days, then especially so this weekend as it pushes south. Until it pushes south, temperatures will also be rather high, nearing or eclipsing 100 F. Rainfall over the next several days may be enough to keep up fairly good yields for corn and soybeans for much of the region and there is a chance that rains will return next week as well.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Pockets of moderate to heavy rain have been in the region over the past several days, as well as severe weather. The final front of a sequence is moving into the region Thursday and will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms through Friday before pushing southward. Many of the drought areas saw good rainfall over the last week, but that region remains largely in drought and is stressing filling corn and soybeans. Conditions continue to be better in the southeast on average.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Mostly dry conditions continue Thursday as the main storm track is off to the north. A front will finally sag into the region with scattered showers Friday continuing into next week, especially across the south.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week. We will have to monitor the potential Tropical Storm Fred to impact the region early next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have come too late for wheat and canola as harvest continues to advance. Showers have been more likely to impact harvest than be beneficial to crops nearing maturity. A period of dryness is expected into the weekend, but the region should be more active next week as another system moves through.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A frontal boundary is bringing scattered showers to southern areas this week, benefiting soil moisture for winter wheat. Temperatures have gone well below normal again across Rio Grande do Sul have produced some frosts, which could be damaging to wheat that is getting closer to or into reproduction.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Recent showers over southern wheat areas benefited soil moisture. Temperatures have fallen below normal with widespread frosts limiting growth. Temperatures are likely to rise above normal next week.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Showers are becoming more isolated, allowing for more winter and early spring wheat to be harvested. More showers are likely next week as system moves through central and eastern areas. Soil moisture continues to be mostly favorable for corn in most areas.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A system in the Black Sea will bring some showers to eastern Ukraine and northwest Russia for the next several days and may finally bring some relieving showers and temperatures to the Volga Valley of Russia this weekend. However, high temperatures and little rainfall has stressed spring wheat and corn in these areas and has likely led to reductions in productivity.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Scattered showers look to continue in northeast areas through the next week. There is a large contrast in crop conditions with poor conditions across the west and south and good conditions in the northeast.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers continue to favor vegetative winter wheat and canola, but northern New South Wales and Queensland could use some more showers. Somewhat drier conditions are expected over the next week. Still, soil moisture is favorable for vegetative wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across the wetter corn and soybean areas this week, keeping soil moisture high, but unfavorably so in some areas.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): The monsoon is becoming a little less active across western and southern areas through the weekend, which could stress cotton and soybeans. Models are indicating that the monsoon rains should pick back up next week, but slowly.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers south Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday, near to above normal north and below normal south Sunday and Monday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: A few showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures near above normal Tuesday and Wednesday, near to below normal Thursday through Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday, south Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near normal north and well below normal south.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures below to well Thursday, below normal Friday, near normal Saturday-Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Saturday, near to below normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday and Monday.

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