DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...109 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...20 AT PETER SINKS UT

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...SOUTH BEND IN 2.18 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

Several disturbances across North America are coalescing into one across central Canada with ridges off the West Coast and eastern Canada. The trough complex will try to push eastward this weekend but will weaken when it does. The western ridge will slide eastward next week, moving into eastern Canada, allowing another trough to move into western North America.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement with the pattern but not the details. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to below normal across the Midwest and Southern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually rise through early next week but may fall in the West by midweek. A front will remain active across the south next week. Another system may move into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains with scattered showers next week. And we will have to watch for Tropical Storm Fred for the Southeast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent showers left some holes across portions of the state as drought continues to impact filling corn and soybeans. The pattern stays drier into early next week with continued stress. There may be some showers in the middle to end of next week as another trough moves into the West.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been scattered lately, leaving some holes where dryness continues to creep in. A front in the region will be somewhat active over the next couple of days, then especially so this weekend as it pushes south. Until it pushes south, temperatures will also be rather high, nearing or eclipsing 100 F. Rainfall over the next several days may be enough to keep up fairly good yields for corn and soybeans for much of the region and there is a chance that rains return next week as well.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Pockets of moderate to heavy rain have been in the region over the past several days, as well as severe weather. Several fronts that are moving into the region will continue to produce showers and thunderstorms through Friday before the final front pushes southward. Rainfall is less likely in the northwestern corner, which remains largely in drought and is stressing filling corn and soybeans. Conditions continue to be better in the southeast on average.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Mostly dry conditions continue for the next couple of days as the main storm track is off to the north. A front will finally sag into the region with scattered showers Friday continuing into next week, especially across the south.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week. We will have to monitor the potential for a tropical system to impact the region early next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers have come too late for wheat and canola as harvest continues to advance. Showers have been more likely to impact harvest than be beneficial to crops nearing maturity. A period of dryness is expected late this week into the weekend, but the region should be more active next week as another system moves through.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A frontal boundary is bringing scattered showers to southern areas this week, benefiting soil moisture for winter wheat. Temperatures will go well below normal again across Rio Grande do Sul and could produce some frosts on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, which could be damaging to wheat that is getting closer to or into reproduction.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers developed over a good portion of the southern wheat areas on Sunday, benefiting soil moisture. Temperatures have fallen below normal with widespread frosts limiting growth. Temperatures are likely to rise above normal next week.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Showers are becoming more isolated, allowing for more winter and early spring wheat to be harvested. More showers are likely next week as system moves through central and eastern areas. Soil moisture continues to be mostly favorable for corn in most areas.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): A system in the Black Sea will bring some showers to eastern Ukraine and northwest Russia for the next several days and may finally bring some relieving showers and temperatures to the Volga Valley of Russia this weekend. However, high temperatures and little rainfall has stressed spring wheat and corn in these areas and has likely led to reductions in productivity.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Scattered showers look to continue in northeast areas through the next week. There is a large contrast in crop conditions with poor conditions across the west and south and good conditions in the northeast.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers continue to favor vegetative winter wheat and canola, but northern New South Wales and Queensland could use some more showers. Somewhat drier conditions are expected over the next week. Still, soil moisture is favorable for vegetative wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue across the wetter corn and soybean areas this week, keeping soil moisture high, but unfavorably so in some areas.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): The monsoon is becoming a little less active across western and southern areas through the weekend, which could stress cotton and soybeans. Models are indicating that the monsoon rains should pick back up next week, but slowly.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers Iowa and Missouri. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday, south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal northwest and near to below normal southeast Monday, near to above normal Tuesday through Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday, near to above normal Tuesday through Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers Friday and Saturday, south Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers south Monday through Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday through Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Scattered showers Sunday. Temperatures near normal north and below to well below normal south Wednesday and Thursday, below normal Friday, near normal Saturday and Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

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