DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH MON...117 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW MON...25 AT MACKAY ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM MONDAY...FLORA IL 2.79 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There are several disturbances throughout North America, a ridge over the eastern Pacific, and a weak ridge in eastern Canada. One disturbance across the northern Canadian Prairies will be the main trough by Wednesday while the others are absorbed or dissipate. Meanwhile, the ridges will strengthen on both coasts. The trough will weaken as it goes through eastern Canada but so will the ridges, allowing for another trough to move into western North America next week while the western ridge shifts to eastern Canada and strengthens.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement with the pattern but not the details. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Sunday will be near to below normal across the Midwest and Southern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. Temperatures will gradually rise through early next week but may fall in the West by midweek. A front may remain active across the south this weekend into next week. Another system may move into the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains with scattered showers next week.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell across the region over the weekend and Monday. The pattern will be drier for at least the next week, causing any areas that missed out to remain in dire straits for filling corn and soybeans.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers and thunderstorms fell across the region this weekend, with some isolated showers on Monday. The rainfall will be good for filling corn and soybeans in the region where they occurred. Isolated showers will continue through the week as several fronts move through. One will sag over southern areas this weekend and be the most active.

MIDWEST (CORN/SOYBEANS): Pockets of moderate to heavy rain have been in the region over the past several days. The rain across the northwest was not enough for many areas and will need more. A couple of systems moving through this week will continue to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms, including across the drier northwest. The final front will slide south by the weekend with drier weather expected into next week. Conditions continue to be better in the southeast and worse in the northwest on average.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Some isolated showers will be possible over the next day or two, but most areas will stay dry as the main storm track is off to the north. A front will finally sag into the region this weekend with scattered showers continuing into next week, especially across the south.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers fell across the region this weekend, but it has come too late for wheat and canola as harvest continues to advance. Scattered showers will continue to be possible this week, more likely to impact harvest than be beneficial to crops nearing maturity.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): A frontal boundary will bring scattered showers to southern areas this week, benefiting soil moisture for winter wheat. Temperatures will go well below normal again across Rio Grande do Sul and could produce some frosts on Wednesday and Thursday mornings, which could be damaging to wheat that is getting closer to or into reproduction.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers developed over a good portion of the southern wheat areas on Sunday, benefiting soil moisture. Temperatures will fall below normal for the week with widespread frosts limiting growth.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Scattered showers fell across most areas this weekend into early this week. Showers will be a bit more isolated this week as the pattern calms down a bit and the storm track pushes northward. This will help saturated soils dry out for wheat harvest while soil moisture remains mostly favorable for corn.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Scattered showers fell across Ukraine this weekend, but were absent in southwest Russia, which continues to be hot and dry. A system in the Black Sea will bring some showers to eastern Ukraine and northwest Russia for the next several days and may finally bring some relieving showers and temperatures to the Volga Valley of Russia this weekend.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Scattered showers fell across northern areas this weekend and look to continue in northeast areas through the week. There is a large contrast in crop conditions with poor conditions across the west and south and good conditions in the northeast.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers fell across western areas this weekend, but the east was dry. Recent showers continue to favor vegetative winter wheat and canola, but northern New South Wales and Queensland could use some more showers. Somewhat drier conditions are expected over the next week. Still, soil moisture is favorable for vegetative wheat and canola.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continued across the wetter corn and soybean areas this weekend, keeping soil moisture high, but unfavorably so in some areas. Scattered showers will remain possible through the week.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers fell over the weekend, but the monsoon is becoming a little less active across western and southern areas for at least the next week, which could stress cotton and soybeans.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated to scattered showers through Thursday, south Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

East: Isolated to scattered showers through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Sunday through Tuesday. Isolated showers Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures near to above normal northwest and near to below normal southeast Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday through Thursday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Sunday through Thursday. Temperatures near to below normal Sunday and Monday, near to above normal Tuesday and Thursday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday and Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday, near normal Saturday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Saturday through Thursday. Temperatures near normal Sunday through Thursday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers south. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Tuesday, north Wednesday through Friday. Mostly dry Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday, near normal north and below to well below normal south Wednesday and Thursday, below normal Friday, near normal Saturday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures above normal north and near to below normal south through Saturday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Saturday. Temperatures below normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday.

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