DTN Daily Basis Comments

DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was 5 cents weaker at 69 cents over the September futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was up 7 cents at $6.27. The national average basis for soybeans was 7 cents weaker at 23 cents over the November futures contract and the DTN National Soybean Index was down 2 cents at $13.77. The national average basis for HRW wheat was 1 cent stronger at 15 cents under the September futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was up 31 cents at $6.88. The national average basis for HRS wheat was 1 cent stronger at 14 cents under the September futures contract and the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was up 19 cents at $9.09.

	DTN Cash	Change From	National	Contract	Change from
Commodity	Index	Prev Day	Avg. Basis	Month	Prev Day
Corn:	$6.27	$0.07	$0.69	Sep	-$0.051
Soybeans:	$13.77	-$0.02	$0.23	Nov	-$0.065
SRW Wheat:	$6.88	$0.27	-$0.42	Sep	$0.011
HRW Wheat:	$6.88	$0.31	-$0.15	Sep	$0.004
HRS Wheat:	$9.09	$0.19	-$0.14	Sep	$0.005

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Monday is at 69 cents over the September futures, 5 cents weaker than Friday's basis. The September corn market closed up 11 3/4 cents at $5.58 3/4, while December closed up 14 cents at 5.59 1/4. Besides finding strength in the higher wheat markets, corn inspections for the week ended July 29 showed total inspections in 2020-21 are now up 65% from the previous year. That is higher than the current USDA estimated corn exports in 2020-21 and up 60% from the prior year. The forecast for the next week looks to be bringing back heat and dry conditions to much of the Midwest and Northern Plains. Track St. Louis was 1 cent stronger and Gulf basis was steady, while river basis in Iowa was 10 cents stronger and 20 cents stronger on the Illinois River at one station. Most of the demand for empty barges right now is in the Upper Mississippi River and while there are no current safety issues due to low water, this will likely change unless we see some rainfall there and along the Lower Mississippi too. The Mississippi River in St. Paul has dropped to three feet in the past week.

SOYBEAN:

The national average soybean basis for Monday is at 23 cents over the November futures, 7 cents weaker than Friday's basis. September soybean futures closed up 3/4 cent at 13.56 1/4 and November closed up 4 1/4 cents at 13.53 1/2, after starting the day lower with the lower crude oil market and the lower soybean oil futures. The market recovered on the latest weather report calling for hot and dry weather to return and also found some strength in the higher corn market. Soybean inspections for the week ended July 29 are now up 48% in 2020-21 from the previous year and higher than the current USDA estimated soybean exports in 2020-21, up 35% from the prior year. Tuesday's USDA weekly Crop Progress report is expected to show a 1- to 2-percentage point downgrade in soybean's good-to-excellent rating. Weakness in the processor basis is the main reason for the drop we saw in basis levels Monday. Southern Minnesota and central Iowa basis was 5 cents weaker, northwest Iowa and northeast South Dakota was 10 cents weaker, east central South Dakota was 8 cents weaker, and south central Nebraska was 18 cents weaker.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Monday is at 42 cents under the September futures, 1 cent stronger than Friday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Monday is at 15 cents under the Kansas City September futures, 1 cent stronger than Friday's basis. The KC September futures were up 30 1/4 cents, leading the other wheat futures on the day. The market found support in the cut to the Russian wheat crop forecasted by SovEcon to 76.4 million metric tons versus their prior forecast of 82.3 million mt. If that holds true, it could give the US a chance at more export business. Paris milling futures were higher on the day as the quality concerns continue to plague the French wheat crop. Basis is steady and mills are still willing buyers depending on the protein.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Monday is at 14 cents under the Minneapolis September futures, 1 cent stronger than Friday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis September futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were at +135, 13.5% proteins were unchanged at +140N, 14% proteins were unchanged at +150; 14.5% proteins were unchanged at +125 and 15% proteins were down 20 cents to unchanged at +115* to +170. Receipts were 53 cars, which included one train(s).* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

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