Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat continuing across the United States with severe storms expected in the Upper Midwest, and a hotter and drier pattern in Russia, are the weather factors holding the market's attention Wednesday.

SEVERE STORMS FOR MIDWEST

Conditions will be hot in the Midwest with temperature highs into the 90s Fahrenheit before a system moves through on Wednesday and Thursday that will bring more widespread showers and lower temperatures. While drought areas in Minnesota and Wisconsin will benefit from the rainfall, this may come with significant severe weather. Another round of beneficial rain will come through this weekend, and may get a good section of Iowa with timely rains. It could give more heavy rain to saturated soils in Missouri and Illinois, however.

SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN CHANCES

Hot weather near 100 F will aid in drying soils for the next couple of days in the Southern Plains, leading to some stress for reproductive corn and soybeans. There is a good chance for helpful rain coming Friday and Saturday to Nebraska, but it is questionable whether Kansas and the southern areas will get much rainfall this weekend. Cooler conditions are forecast behind the system for next week, which would benefit drier areas.

HEAT TEMPORARILY ENDING IN NORTHERN PLAINS

The heat continues for one more day in the Northern Plains, but a front moving through Wednesday will bring temperatures down for Thursday into the weekend. A system will develop over South Dakota on Friday and bring moderate to heavy rainfall, but other areas are likely to be dry. Another system may come through in the middle of next week though models are unsure of how good coverage or amounts will be with it. Temperatures are likely to rise next week, creating more stress for reproductive corn and soybeans.

FAVORABLE DELTA GROWING CONDITIONS

Isolated showers moved through the Delta during the past few days and will continue on Wednesday. More rainfall is expected with a weak front moving through on Friday, and another system coming through over the weekend. Conditions remain mostly favorable for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

NEAR-DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

In the Southeast, near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

HOT AND DRY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies were dry during the past several days with temperatures in the 90s Fahrenheit across the south. The combination continues to stress reproductive to filling wheat and canola. Limited rainfall chances and temperatures mostly above normal will continue to be unfavorable for the next week. The next chance for meaningful rainfall comes in the middle of next week.

FROSTS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Another round of frost occurred over southern Brazil Wednesday morning and should continue for Thursday and Friday mornings as well. It is getting too late for much of the corn crop to be affected as they race toward maturity. Winter wheat will not enjoy the below-normal temperatures, but damage is not expected to occur.

EAST-WEST DIFFERENCES IN THE BLACK SEA

Systems will continue to pulse through Europe, which will bring periods of showers through Ukraine and northwest Russia over the course of the next week, but it will be likely to miss southwest Russia and the Volga Valley, areas that could use more moisture as temperatures go back above normal.

REMNANTS OF TYPHOON IN-FA FLOODING CHINA

The remnant low of Typhoon In-Fa is forecast to move northeast through most of the major corn and soybean areas for the rest of this week and weekend. This could mean flooding rains and damage, hurting production.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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