Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heat Early This Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat across the United States but with some shower potential, and flooding concerns for China, are the weather factors holding the market's attention Monday.

HEAT AND SHOWERS FOR MIDWEST

A front brought scattered showers to the Midwest this weekend. This benefited some areas of northern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, but much of the drier areas of the northwest that are in drought saw little to no beneficial showers. Wetter southern and eastern areas saw more scattered moderate to heavy rainfall, but no significant flooding. Minnesota is in line to have another couple of shots at rain early this week, which will help with drought conditions in some areas, while other areas will remain mostly dry. Temperatures will be high across the west with highs well into the 90s Fahrenheit before a system moves through on Wednesday and Thursday that will bring more widespread showers. Another round of beneficial rain will come through this weekend and may get most of Iowa with timely rains. It could give more heavy rain to saturated soils in Missouri and Illinois, however.

SOUTHERN PLAINS HOT AND MOSTLY DRY

Scattered showers moved through the Southern Plains this weekend, causing some delays to the ongoing winter wheat harvest. And while most areas saw only light rainfall, there was a strip of heavy rain along the Nebraska/Kansas border that produced some flooding. Scattered showers helped some areas, but the region needs more moisture for reproductive corn and soybeans. Overall light showers will not be much of a benefit. High temperatures near 100 F will dry soils as well, leading to some stress.

HEAT WITH LIMITED SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved across the Dakotas this weekend but were not particularly heavy or widespread. Isolated showers may continue through the Northern Plains this week, but no significant showers are forecast until a system moves across the south Friday into Saturday. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible in South Dakota in this time frame, but the rest of the region could stay dry until a system moves through early-to-mid next week. Heat near or eclipsing 100 F will continue through Wednesday before a weak front pushes temperatures back down toward 90 F for the rest of the week. Even with the potential rainfall, the heat will be a significant issue for reproductive corn and soybeans and livestock.

FAVORABLE DELTA CONDITIONS

Isolated showers moved through the Delta this weekend and will continue through Wednesday. More rainfall is expected with a weak front moving through on Friday, and another system coming through during the weekend. Conditions remain mostly favorable for reproductive cotton and soybeans.

NEAR-DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

In the Southeast, near-daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

HOT AND DRY FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

The Canadian Prairies were dry this weekend with temperatures nearing 90 F across the south. The combination continues to stress reproductive to filling wheat and canola. Limited rainfall chances and temperatures mostly above normal will continue to be unfavorable for the next week.

MORE FROSTS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL

Dry weather occurred for Brazil this weekend. A front will bring showers across southern areas early this week, but also with falling temperatures again. Another round of frost will be possible Wednesday through Friday mornings. It is getting too late for much of the rain to have any benefit and luckily, too late for much of the corn crop to be affected either as crops race toward maturity. Winter wheat will not enjoy the below-normal temperatures, but damage is not expected to occur.

EAST-WEST DIFFERENCES IN THE BLACK SEA

Very little rainfall occurred in Ukraine and western Russia during the weekend but temperatures were closer to normal. Systems will continue to pulse through Europe, which will bring periods of showers through Ukraine and northwest Russia during the course of the next week, but it will be likely to miss southwest Russia and the Volga Valley, areas that could use more moisture as temperatures go back above normal.

TYPHOON IN-FA FLOODS CHINA

Typhoon In-Fa has weakened significantly since coming ashore in central China south of Shanghai. The system is forecast to slowly move further inland and across northeast areas through the week and weekend. This could mean flooding rains for corn and soybean areas, but there is some uncertainty with the track, especially after Thursday.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick