DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough in the Canadian Prairies, a strong ridge from the Rockies to Hudson Bay, and a trough in the Northeast. The trough in the Canadian Prairies will continue eastward, anchoring itself over Hudson Bay and eastern Canada for next week.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the low will remain in Hudson Bay and eastern Canada while the ridge continues in the Rockies. This will set up a storm track near the U.S.-Canada border for next week.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement on the pattern but not on the details. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal across the country, which should continue through next weekend, though we could see some cooling in the Northeast. A front will push through the northern tier of the country late in the week with scattered showers.

Meanwhile, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Gulf Coast.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH THU...119 AT STOVEPIPE WELLS CA

LOW THU...32 AT SUNRIVER OR

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM THURSDAY...DAYTONA BEACH FL 0.86 INCHES

U.S. OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough in the Canadian Prairies, a strong ridge from the Rockies to Hudson Bay and a trough in the Northeast. The trough in the Canadian Prairies will continue eastward, anchoring itself over Hudson Bay and eastern Canada for next week. Meanwhile, the ridge will continue across the West and strengthen next week. This will set up a storm track near the U.S.-Canada border for next week.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement on the pattern but not on the details. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Wednesday will be near to above normal across the country, which should continue through next weekend, though we could see some cooling in the Northeast. A front will push through the northern tier of the country late in the week with scattered showers.

Meanwhile, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Gulf Coast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Near triple-digit heat continues into next week. Stress continues to mount for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans and has taken a massive toll on spring wheat. A front will bring some scattered showers on Friday, and isolated showers may continue into next week, but the heat will continue through the end of July and the showers are unlikely to have more than a local benefit.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions continue for the next few days outside of some very isolated showers. Temperatures will be on a warming trend through the weekend and next week. Overall, conditions are favorable for the remaining wheat harvest and developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. But if rain does not come with the heat, we could see stress developing for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A front will move through the region with more scattered showers this weekend, especially across the north. The front may stay active across the region into early next week with isolated shower chances. Heat will spread across the region over the next few days, stressing developing to reproductive corn and soybeans in drier sections of the region, particularly in the northwest. Conditions continue to be much better across the southeast where drier conditions will allow more saturated soils to drain and hasten crop development.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Isolated showers will remain in the region into next week, being mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some isolated showers moved across the region this week but most areas have seen very little precipitation and has not significantly impacted the drought. Isolated showers will remain possible for the next week, though amounts are not expected to be very helpful for reproductive to filling spring wheat and canola. Temperatures mostly above normal will continue to stress the crops as well.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Recent frosts across Parana and Rio Grande do Sul were another layer of adverse weather conditions for filling safrinha corn. Dry weather through this weekend will not be favorable for crops but it is getting too late to have much of an impact as corn matures. Wheat across the south is faring better but could still use more moisture. A front early next week could provide some beneficial rains for wheat but temperatures will fall well below normal and could contain another round of frosts.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness continues through Saturday. Even with limited rainfall recently, soil moisture continues to be favorable for most of the winter wheat areas. Scattered showers are forecast to develop Sunday into Monday with precipitation that should be beneficial. Temperatures will fall below normal next week, however.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Dryness in Germany this week helped the region to recover from flooding. Outside of some localized areas that are having issues, favorable conditions are noted for most of the growing regions for wheat and corn. The next system moves into western areas Friday into the weekend and could be concerning for flooded and saturated areas.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Recent hot temperatures have been pushed aside as a frontal boundary moved through. Scattered showers that came with the front were highly beneficial as well. Even with the heat over the last week, most areas have had enough soil moisture to get by except for the Volga Valley region of Russia. Dryness here may have had some negative impacts to wheat and corn. Dryness follows the system, however, and more showers would be welcome for those areas that get missed this week. That may come mid-late next week in Ukraine but is questionable whether showers will occur for much of Russia.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Showers over eastern areas will continue better overall conditions in this portion of the region while western areas dry out under poor condition.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): An active storm track will continue to bring periods of showers to the region over the next week, maintaining overall favorable conditions for vegetative winter wheat and canola in most areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of widespread showers and relatively stable temperatures continue favoring developing corn and soybeans.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers have been a little disappointing in the northwestern quarter of the country thus far, but are in the area. Some cotton areas are doing better than others due to the discrepancy. Showers have been much more consistent and heavier across the east and south for soybeans.

This pattern likely continues over the coming week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to above normal.

East: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Friday night-Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

East: Scattered showers north Friday. Scattered showers Saturday, mostly north.

Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday-Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers northwest. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday. Isolated showers Sunday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Tuesday. Temperatures near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday-Tuesday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Wednesday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Sunday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Scattered showers south Monday, north Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday-Monday, near to below normal Tuesday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Isolated showers MGDS Tuesday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Tuesday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, near to below normal Monday, below normal Tuesday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Friday. Isolated showers Saturday-Sunday. Mostly dry Monday-Tuesday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday, below normal Monday-Tuesday.

John Baranick