DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is a trough moving into British Columbia, a strong ridge across the Rockies and Canadian Prairies, a trough across the South and Southeast, and a trough in the Northeast. The low in British Columbia will take the top off the ridge as it moves through Canada through the weekend. It will likely stall in Hudson Bay.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the low will remain in Hudson Bay and the ridge will likely strengthen next week as it spreads eastward across the U.S.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal across the country, which should continue through next week. A front will push through the northern tier of the country early-to-mid next week with scattered showers. The front to the system may stall across the Corn Belt with continued showers. Meanwhile, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the South and Southeast.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...119 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...39 AT ALBANY WY AND ANTERO RESERVOIR CO

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...HUNTSVILLE AL 2.04 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough moving into British Columbia, a strong ridge across the Rockies and Canadian Prairies, a trough across the South and Southeast, and a trough in the Northeast. The low in British Columbia will take the top off the ridge as it moves through Canada through the weekend. It will likely stall in Hudson Bay. But the ridge will continue to remain firm across the Rockies into next week and expand eastward as it pushes the Northeast trough offshore.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement. I will favor the European with differences.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal across the country, which should continue through next week. A front will push through the northern tier of the country early-to-mid next week with scattered showers. The front to the system may stall across the Corn Belt with continued showers. Meanwhile, daily showers and thunderstorms will continue across the South and Southeast.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Isolated showers may continue over the next couple of days, but most areas are likely to remain dry as triple-digit heat becomes fairly widespread. Stress continues to mount for developing to reproductive corn and soybeans and has taken a massive toll on spring wheat. A front may bring some scattered showers on Friday, and the isolated showers may continue into next week, but the heat will continue through the end of July.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Drier conditions are expected for the rest of this week, but temperatures should remain on the mild side until Friday when temperatures will go on a warming trend. Overall, conditions will be favorable for the remaining wheat harvest and developing to reproductive corn and soybeans. But if rain does not come with the heat, we could see stress developing for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A frontal boundary will slide south from Canada into northern sections of the region this week, producing some isolated showers. Another front will move through the region with more scattered showers this weekend. Heat will spread across the region over the next few days, stressing developing to reproductive corn and soybeans in drier sections of the region, particularly in the northwest. Conditions continue to be much better across the southeast where drier conditions will allow more saturated soils to drain.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): Scattered showers will remain in the region through the week, being mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Some isolated showers moved across the region this week, but most areas have seen little precipitation and has not significantly impacted the drought. If not for low clouds and smoke, temperatures would be higher and hurt reproductive wheat and canola even more than they currently are. Unless the smoke cannot be mixed out, limited shower activity and temperatures above normal will continue to stress reproductive to filling wheat and canola for the next week.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Recent frosts across Parana and Rio Grande do Sul were another layer of adverse weather conditions for filling safrinha corn. Dry weather through this weekend will not be favorable for crops, but it is getting too late to have much of an impact as corn matures.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): Dryness continues through Saturday. Even with limited rainfall recently, soil moisture continues to be favorable for most of the winter wheat areas. A larger system is forecast to develop Sunday into early next week with widespread precipitation that will be beneficial.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): A system that brought scattered showers to eastern areas this weekend is pushing east. Dryness in Germany helped the region to recover from flooding. Outside of some localized areas that are having issues, favorable conditions are noted for most of the growing regions for wheat and corn. The next system moves into western areas on Friday and into the weekend and could be concerning for flooded and saturated areas.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Recent high temperatures are being pushed aside as a frontal boundary works slowly across the region. The front is bringing scattered showers, which will help to improve soil moisture after the heat wave. Even with the heat over the last week, most areas have had enough soil moisture to get by except for the Volga Valley region of Russia. Dryness here may have had some negative impacts to wheat and corn. Dryness follows the system through next weekend, however, and more showers would be welcome for those areas that get missed this week.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Showers over eastern areas will continue better overall conditions in this portion of the region while western areas dry out under poor condition.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): An active storm track will continue to bring periods of showers to the region over the next week, maintaining overall favorable conditions for vegetative winter wheat and canola in most areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of widespread showers and relatively stable temperatures continue favoring developing corn and soybeans.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers have been a little disappointing in the northwestern quarter of the country thus far but are in the area. Some cotton areas are doing better than others due to the discrepancy. Showers have been much more consistent and heavier across the east and south for soybeans. This pattern likely continues over the coming week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers far north. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south.

East: Isolated showers northeast. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Wednesday and Thursday. Mostly dry Friday. Scattered showers Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

East: Isolated showers northwest Wednesday and Thursday. Scattered showers east Friday. Scattered showers Saturday, mostly north. Isolated showers Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday and Thursday, near normal Friday, near to above normal Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday through Friday. Temperatures above normal Monday through Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Friday. Isolated showers north Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Thursday, near to above normal Friday through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers north Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers south. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers south Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday through Saturday, near to above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below to well below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near normal north and well below normal south.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday through Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

John Baranick