Commodities Market Impact Weather

Heat and Dryness Returning to Northwest Corn Belt

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Dryness behind a frontal boundary that continues to bring moderate to heavy rainfall and another round of frost potential in Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Friday.

MIDWEST TURNING DRIER

Heavy rainfall across northern areas of the Midwest on Wednesday missed some key areas of western Minnesota where drought intensified during the last week. But the rainfall was very welcome across northern Iowa, southern Minnesota, and Wisconsin, which helped to ease drought in these areas. The system will move slowly south during the next day or two, continuing to bring moderate to heavy rain across the south. The rain will be helpful overall, but some of the wetter spots in northern Missouri and Illinois could use some dryness. Drier conditions are developing behind the front and will continue into next week. This may wipe out any benefit from the rainfall over the northwest, but will benefit the saturated soils across the south and east.

PERIODS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

A system will continue to bring scattered showers to the Southern Plains Friday as a front slips south. The region could stay active through Monday with isolated to scattered showers, which would benefit developing to reproductive corn and soybeans outside of flooding risks. Remaining winter wheat harvest will have to dodge the rain or continue to wait.

HEAT AND DRYNESS FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers in the Northern Plains this week were disappointing and the region will be much drier during the next week. Isolated showers may develop at times but will be unlikely to have a large impact on developing to reproductive corn and soybeans, or headed spring wheat. Heat will build back into the region next week and several days near 100 degrees Fahrenheit will continue to stress crops.

DELTA SHOWERS INCREASING

More showers will develop as a front sags into the area into next week. Conditions are mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Southeast continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

HEATWAVE CONTINUES FOR CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Crop conditions in the Canadian Prairies continue to deteriorate as heat and dryness continue to take their toll on crops. A significant heatwave building back into the region will continue through next week, accelerating crop growth even further. There will be some isolated showers that move through, but most areas are likely to miss out, creating more stress outside of northwest Alberta.

FROSTS FOR SOUTHERN BRAZIL NEXT WEEK

Dry weather continues to stress filling corn in Brazil, which is still a large portion of the crop still in the field. Winter wheat has fared better but could use more rainfall. A front is bringing isolated showers to southern areas through the weekend, which could offer limited benefit to corn that is still further behind developmentally. There is another chance for frosts Sunday through Tuesday mornings that could have more detrimental effects on corn across the south.

BLACK SEA HEAT AND DRYNESS CONTNIUES

Overall hot and dry conditions in Ukraine and western Russia this week continue through the weekend. This could cause stress for some of the locally drier areas of the region, though many still have plenty of soil moisture to cope with the heat. The Volga Valley region of Russia will likely have the hardest time dealing with the heat. Showers and a break from the heat are expected to come next week.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick