DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...121 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...37 AT BIG PINEY WA, CHOTEAU MT, FORK ROCK OR, PETER SINKS UT, AND PIERCE ID

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...LUFKIN TX 2.96 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a firm ridge across the West, a developing trough in the Northern Plains, a weakening disturbance in the Northeast, and a ridge off the East Coast. The Northern Plains trough will continue eastward through Friday, leaving a piece of itself to roam the South and Southeast next week. A trough will try to push the western ridge out of the way this weekend but is not expected to succeed as the ridge spreads northeast for next week.

The U.S. and European models are in general agreement, but I will favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to below normal across the Central and Southern Plains to the Southeast with above normal temperatures elsewhere. This pattern will generally continue next week with the highest temperatures in the Northern Plains and Canadian Prairies. A front will stall out in near the Gulf Coast next week with scattered showers continuing. Some isolated showers will be possible in the expanding heat in the Central and Northern Plains as well.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will continue to move through on Wednesday with moderate to heavy rain for South Dakota, but largely missing North Dakota. Isolated showers may follow through the weekend before heat builds back into the region next week. Showers are unlikely to have a large impact on developing to reproductive corn and soybeans but may stabilize conditions. The heat and dryness that follows next week will likely wipe out any benefit.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): A system will bring scattered shower chances mostly to northern areas through Friday. The region could stay active over the weekend, which would benefit developing to reproductive corn and soybeans outside of further severe risks. Remaining winter wheat harvest will have to dodge the rain or continue to wait.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): There continues to be a wide range of conditions from northwest to southeast across the region with varying degrees of dryness and wetness. A system will slowly move through the region through the weekend, with beneficial moderate to heavy rain across the drier northern areas through Thursday as corn and soybeans get further into their respective reproductive phases. Wetter areas across the south and east could use more dryness but will get more moderate to heavy rain. After this system moves through, drier conditions will develop for next week. This may wipe out any benefit from the rainfall over the northwest but will benefit the saturated soils across the south and east.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): After a dry next couple of days, more showers will develop as a front sags into the area this weekend into next week. Conditions are mostly favorable for developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Crop conditions continue to deteriorate as heat and dryness continue to take their toll on crops. A significant heat wave will build back into the region over the next couple of days and continue through next week, accelerating crop growth even further. There will be some isolated shower activity that moves through, but many areas are likely to miss out, creating more stress outside of northwest Alberta.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Dry weather continues to stress filling corn, which is still a large portion of the crop still in the field. Winter wheat has fared better but could use more rainfall. A front will bring showers to southern areas late this week and weekend, which could offer limited benefit to corn that is still further behind developmentally. There is another chance for frosts early next week that could have more detrimental effects on corn across the south.

ARGENTINA (WINTER WHEAT): A system will continue with scattered showers across northern areas Wednesday before pushing northward. Even with limited rainfall, soil moisture continues to be favorable for most of the winter wheat areas.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): A system moving through will bring scattered showers to much of the continent this week, stalling over eastern areas into next week. This will be highly beneficial for developing to reproductive crops over eastern areas which have been the only spots lacking adequate precipitation for spring-sewn crops this season. Conditions are highly favorable for most of the rest of the continent.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): An overall hot and dry forecast is expected through the weekend. This could cause stress for some of the locally drier areas of the region, though many still have plenty of soil moisture to cope with the heat. The Volga Valley region of Russia will likely have the hardest time dealing with the heat. Showers and a break from the heat is expected to come next week.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Scattered showers continue across eastern areas of the region as an upper-level low continues to spin in the region. Conditions in this half of the region are much better than the west, where dryness and heat have taken a toll on developing to reproductive small grains.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Periods of showers are maintaining overall favorable conditions for vegetative winter wheat and canola in most areas.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Periods of widespread showers and relatively stable temperatures continue favoring developing corn and soybeans.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Monsoon showers started to return to some key areas of central and northern India this weekend, where there have been delays in planting. Showers have been much more consistent and heavier across the east and south. The showers should be more widespread through the coming week.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

East: Scattered showers east. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast:

West: Scattered showers Wednesday and Thursday, south Friday and Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

East: Scattered showers through Saturday, south Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near to below normal Saturday and Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday and Tuesday. Isolated showers east Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday and Friday. Temperatures near to above normal north and near to below normal south Monday through Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday and Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Friday, especially north. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday through Thursday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday and Tuesday. Mostly dry Wednesday through Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday through Thursday, near normal Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Wednesday, north Thursday and Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday and Saturday, below to well below normal Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers MGDS Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, above normal north and below normal south Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers north Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal through Sunday.

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