Commodities Market Impact Weather

Northern Corn Belt Rain

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A storm system producing much-needed rain across the northern Corn Belt, and the developing heat and dryness across the Canadian Prairies and Black Sea are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Tuesday.

NEEDED NORTHERN MIDWEST RAINFALL

Widespread showers and thunderstorms moved across the southern Midwest this weekend, with some flooding across southern Iowa and the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Rainfall was limited across Minnesota, northern Iowa, and Wisconsin, the areas that continue to be in need of significant moisture as crops go into reproduction. A system moving through Tuesday night through Friday will offer better shower activity across the north and a front sagging slowly southward this weekend will continue better shower chances across the south.

PERIODS OF SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN

Scattered showers and thunderstorms and severe weather moved through the Southern Plains during the weekend. Storms Friday night in Nebraska and Kansas caused some crop damage. A system will bring scattered shower chances mostly to northern areas through Friday and the region could stay active across eastern areas during the weekend, which would benefit developing to reproductive corn and soybeans outside of further severe risks.

LIMITED RAIN FOR NORTHERN PLAINS

There have been some isolated showers in the Northern Plains during the last few days, but many areas have remained unfavorably dry. A system will move through Tuesday and Wednesday with scattered showers, but some areas are likely to be missed by the system, particularly across North Dakota. Isolated showers may follow through the weekend before heat builds back into the region next week. Showers are unlikely to have a large impact on developing to reproductive corn and soybeans, but may offer some stabilizing benefit.

PERIODS OF DELTA SHOWERS

Scattered showers moved through the Delta during the weekend, benefiting developing to reproductive cotton and soybeans. Scattered showers continue Tuesday, then again as a front sags into the area this weekend into next week.

DAILY SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the Southeast continue to produce favorable conditions for developing to reproductive cotton for the next week.

HEAT BUILDING IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Some isolated showers moved through the Canadian Prairies this weekend, but amounts were fairly light as crop conditions continue to deteriorate. After a couple day's break, heat will build back into the region in the middle of the week and continue into next week, accelerating crop growth even further. There will be some showers that move through, but many areas are likely to miss out, creating more stress.

SOUTHERN BRAZIL RAIN LATE THIS WEEK

Dry weather continued over Brazil this weekend, further stressing filling corn. Winter wheat has fared better but could use more rainfall. A front will bring showers to southern areas late this week and weekend, which could offer limited benefit to corn that is still further behind developmentally. There is another chance for frosts early next week that could have more detrimental effects on corn.

BLACK SEA HEAT AND DRYNESS

Some isolated showers will move through Ukraine during the next two of days, but the overall hot and dry forecast is expected through the coming weekend. This could cause stress for some of the locally drier areas of the region, though many still have plenty of soil moisture to cope with the heat. The Volga Valley region of Russia will likely have the hardest time dealing with the heat.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick