DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...116 AT DEATH VALLEY CA

LOW TUE...27 AT LEOTA MI

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...MOBILE AL 3.39 INCHES

U.S. OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is a trough moving through the East, a ridge across the West and into the Plains, a cutoff low off of the California Coast, and a disturbance in the Canadian Prairies. The trough will lift northeast through Canada Wednesday. The disturbance over the Prairies will move down into the Central U.S. toward the end of the week and could be aided by a piece of energy coming from the cutoff low off of California. A portion of it is likely to cut off across the middle of the country this weekend or early next week. The western ridge is forecast to expand around the cutoff low next week.

The U.S. and European models are fairly similar. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures Monday will be near to below normal across the Central and Southern Plains and near to above normal elsewhere. This pattern will continue through the period as temperatures gradually rise across cooler zones. An upper low will be cut off across the middle of the country, producing scattered showers near and east of its location. This is likely to culminate in scattered showers for much of the Midwest south to the Gulf Coast though there is some uncertainty as to where the showers will occur.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved through the region over the weekend, but rainfall was not consistent or widespread. Most areas saw less than 1" as the drought continues to produce harsh impacts for developing crops. Temperatures will go through a roller-coaster type pattern over the next few days but generally be above normal as we get into next week. There are a couple of chances for rain Wednesday through Friday, but showers look to be very isolated. A few more showers will be possible across the Dakotas this weekend which could help to add at least a little bit to rainfall totals, but again will be scattered and light.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers moved across Nebraska on Tuesday with more expected in the state Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next system that will move through Friday through the weekend with more scattered showers. The rains will be helpful for developing corn and soybeans but could cause some delays for winter wheat harvest.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Several waves of showers moved through the region this weekend into Monday with many reports of severe weather. Rain mostly skipped Minnesota and northwest Iowa, where drought has continued to worsen. Scattered showers with hail moved through Iowa and northwest Illinois on Tuesday and may have caused some localized damage, but the rain that occurred was helpful. More widespread showers are expected Thursday through the weekend as a system moves through. This is likely to produce good rainfall for most states except in Minnesota, where moisture has been hardest to come by.

The system will stall in the area with continued shower chances into next week.

Most areas will see good rainfall chances to help developing corn and soybeans.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): A front that moved through on Monday gave most crops a good drink without being too heavy. More showers will be likely this weekend as a front settles in the area. If the front stays stationary in the area, saturated soils could have flooding issues again.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Tropical Storm Claudette moved through the region with widespread rainfall this weekend into Monday, being heavy near its path. A stalled front will continue to produce more showers through the weekend and possibly next week as well. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): Scattered showers moved through the region this weekend, but were mostly light. Temperatures will be more above normal than below it for the next week or two. Soil conditions are mostly favorable for developing wheat and canola, but more showers are needed to keep up with developing crops, especially in the southwest. Only small chances for rain are in the forecast for the next week or two. This will likely drive down soil moisture a bit unless the rains are better than forecast.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Central areas continue to be dry, but southern areas will see even more precipitation chances this weekend and into next week.

Corn continues to see terrible conditions as they get closer to or through maturity but conditions are mostly favorable for developing wheat.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Dry conditions have favored the corn harvest recently, though it is still far behind schedule. Cold temperatures over the last week have kept growth slow for winter wheat. Temperatures will rise above normal for the next few days but another system moving through will bring the cold back into the region by the weekend. The system will produce only limited showers for wheat areas, but could delay the corn harvest across the north.

EUROPE (SPRING WHEAT/CORN): Conditions have been rather favorable for most crops across the continent. A system in the central will slowly move east through the week with periods of showers across the north benefiting developing crops. Hot temperatures will continue east of this system until it arrives, however.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): Heat that has built into the region since the weekend will be a mainstay through the rest of the week, especially across southwest Russia, where temperatures may eclipse 100 Fahrenheit for several days. Soil moisture will hold out for a while as showers had been very persistent last week, but the heat could quickly turn soils dry for developing corn and spring wheat. Conditions are favorable for maturing winter wheat, however. Showers will start to move into western portions of the region this weekend, dropping temperatures by several degrees. It may take until the middle of next week to do so for Russia.

CENTRAL RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Scattered showers in the area over the last several days have been beneficial where they occurred and temperatures dropping well below normal helped to reduce drought stress for developing spring grains. An upper-level low providing both the showers and cool temperatures will stick around the region for the next week.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Conditions are very good for developing wheat and canola. Periods of showers have been rather consistent and continue to be so for the next week.

CHINA (CORN/SOYBEANS): Conditions are mostly favorable over the northeast for developing corn and soybeans.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Widespread showers continue to develop as the monsoon treks northward through the country, allowing for more planting for cotton and soybeans. Conditions are very favorable for developing crops.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Scattered showers Iowa. Temperatures below normal.

East: Isolated showers Illinois and Michigan. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers around Iowa Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, near normal Saturday, near to below normal Sunday.

East: Scattered showers northwest through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal southwest and near to above normal elsewhere Monday-Tuesday, near to above normal Wednesday-Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Scattered showers eastern Nebraska. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers north through Thursday. Scattered showers Friday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal Wednesday-Thursday, near to below normal northwest and above normal southeast Friday, near to below normal Saturday-Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near to below normal Monday-Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures below normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry Wednesday. Isolated showers Thursday. Scattered showers north Friday-Sunday. Temperatures below normal Wednesday, near to above normal Thursday-Saturday, near normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers Monday-Friday. Temperatures near normal Monday-Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers north. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers south Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday-Sunday.

Temperatures near to above normal through Saturday, near to above normal north and near to below normal south Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures near to below normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday-Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, below normal Saturday-Sunday.

(c) Copyright 2021 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.