Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- The outlook for more moderate to heavy rain across the Eastern Corn Belt and limited showers across the Western Corn Belt, and a long-lasting heatwave in the Black Sea region are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Tuesday.

MORE EASTERN MIDWEST RAINS

Several waves of showers moved through the Midwest this weekend into Monday with many reports of severe weather. There were some flooding rains in southern Indiana and southwest Ohio with scattered areas of moderate amounts in Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Michigan. Rain mostly skipped Minnesota and northwest Iowa, where drought has continued to worsen. There will likely be some showers around Iowa later Tuesday, but the next system moving through Thursday through the weekend will have the best chance for more widespread showers. Iowa and much of the drought areas across the eastern portions of the region look to have a good chance for moderate to heavy rainfall, but most of Minnesota does not. Like the previous storm, showers will likely be scattered and areas will likely be missed.

ISOLATED SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

Scattered showers moved through the Southern Plains during the last couple of days with many reports of wind damage from Colorado through Kansas and Nebraska from Saturday night's activity. The rain likely delayed winter wheat harvest by a bit but drier conditions during the next few days should be beneficial. The rains were helpful for developing corn and soybeans, but more are needed. Some isolated storms will be possible in Nebraska on Tuesday and Wednesday, but the region should see better chances for widespread precipitation Thursday through the weekend as a system moves through.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Scattered showers moved through the Northern Plains during the weekend, but rainfall was not consistent or widespread. Most areas saw less than 1 inch as the drought continues to produce harsh impacts for developing crops. Temperatures will go through a roller-coaster type pattern during the next seven days. There will be another chance for rain Wednesday through Friday, but showers look to be very isolated. A few more showers will be possible across the Dakotas this weekend which could help to add at least a little bit to rainfall totals.

DELTA FLOOD POTENTIAL THIS WEEKEND

Hot and dry conditions were noted in the Delta during the weekend, benefiting draining of saturated soils and developing cotton and soybeans. A front that moved through on Monday gave most crops a good drink without being too heavy. There will be another chance for showers as another front stalls in the area during the weekend and into next week. We could see a better chance for flooding where soils are already saturated.

CONTINUOUS SHOWERS IN SOUTHEAST

Tropical Storm Claudette moved through the Southeast with widespread rainfall during the last several days, being heavy near its path. A stalled front will continue to produce more showers through the weekend and possibly next week as well. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton.

WARMER AND DRIER IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers moved through the Canadian Prairies this weekend, but were mostly light. Temperatures will be on a roller coaster during the next week, but after Tuesday will be more above normal than below it. Soil conditions are mostly favorable for developing wheat and canola, but more showers would be beneficial, especially in the southwest. Only small chances for rain are in the forecast for the next week or two. This will likely drive down soil moisture a bit unless the rains are better than forecast.

CENTRAL BRAZIL REMAINS DRY

Central areas of Brazil continued to be dry this weekend, but southern areas did see some moderate to heavy rain move through. Another system will bring more showers to southern areas through Tuesday and another system may stall across southern states late this week and weekend. Corn continues to see terrible conditions as they get closer to or through maturity but conditions are mostly favorable for developing wheat.

BLACK SEA HEATWAVE STRENGTHENS

In the Black Sea region, heat continues to build. The heat will be a mainstay through the week, especially across southwest Russia, where temperatures may eclipse 100 degrees Fahrenheit for several days. Soil moisture will hold out for a while as showers had been very persistent last week, but the heat could quickly turn soils dry for developing corn and spring wheat. Showers will start to move into the region this weekend, dropping temperatures by several degrees.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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