Commodities Market Impact Weather

Severe Storms Possible in Iowa Thursday

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Periods of showers and thunderstorms moving through the Corn Belt and a heatwave developing in the Black Sea region are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Thursday.

SCATTERED SEVERE MIDWEST STORMS

Scattered thunderstorms moved through a limited portion of Minnesota and Iowa Wednesday night, benefiting the areas where it moved through. However, much of the western and northern portions of the region remain in drought that got worse during the past week. A front will move through during the next two days with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, and some of these could be severe around Iowa Thursday and across the eastern Midwest Friday. A system moving through Sunday and Monday will bring a better chance for widespread showers, though some areas may be missed by thunderstorm clusters and amounts may be disappointing. Temperatures will fall below normal for the following several days next week, helping to ease stress across the drought areas.

FEW SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS

In the Southern Plains, recent showers have been very isolated and soil moisture has been drying up during the last week. This has promoted favorable conditions for wheat harvest but worsening conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Isolated showers will remain possible during the next two days with a better chance as a system moves through this weekend into early next week, proving some beneficial moisture to a few lucky areas.

HEAT LEAVING IN NORTHERN PLAINS

A front moving through the Northern Plains will take temperatures on a slow progression toward below normal by this weekend but it has produced almost no precipitation. A system moving across the area this weekend will produce scattered showers, but amounts will likely be light and drought will not be reduced this week. Temperatures going below normal will help with the stress, but crops are in dire need of moisture through most of the region.

SCATTERED DELTA SHOWERS

Flooding occurred in the middle portion of the Delta last week, causing a need for replanting. Otherwise, conditions are favorable for developing soybeans and cotton as scattered showers return this weekend and continue into next week. We will have to watch for a potential tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and where it moves during the weekend and next week.

TROPICAL STORM POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST

Recent showers in the Southeast have increased soil moisture across a good portion of the region, but showers will be relegated to the coasts for the rest of the week, with drier conditions inland. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton. A potential tropical storm is expected to develop in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and where it moves over the weekend and next week bears watching.

COLDER CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent rains in the Canadian Prairies has been highly beneficial for developing crops, except for places that received too much and caused some flooding. Winds are breezy and dry for Thursday, which could cause some drying of topsoils and light damage to developing crops. More scattered showers are expected with a system this weekend, but temperatures will fall below normal and a couple of frosty mornings may be possible over eastern areas early next week.

CENTRAL BRAZIL DRYNESS CONTINUES

Central areas of Brazil remain dry, suppressing yield prospects for safrinha (second crop) corn. A system is expected to impact southern states yet again late this week and weekend with isolated showers but will not make it into central states. Another will follow in a similar fashion early next week. This will be favorable for developing winter wheat.

BLACK SEA HEATWAVE

An upper-level low continues to produce widespread showers over Ukraine and into southwestern Russia for the next few days, benefiting developing crops, but putting some extra disease pressure on winter wheat that is heading toward maturity. The low will shift more toward the Balkans this weekend with drier and hot conditions this weekend into next week. The heat may be quite significant with triple-digit readings possible in southern Russia. If the heatwave lasts for more than just a few days, topsoils may dry out and affect developing spring wheat and corn.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick