Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A pattern change bringing colder conditions and scattered showers to the Corn Belt and a heatwave developing in the Black Sea region are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Wednesday.

PROMISE FOR MIDWEST SHOWERS

Isolated showers across the Midwest recently have limited soil moisture gains to only localized places. Dryness has been consistently expanding across Minnesota and Iowa, where crop conditions have fallen the most. A front will move through with some isolated showers during the next few days but with falling temperatures, helping to reduce drought stress. The extended heat wave will be over after the front passes through. A system moving through this weekend into early next week could provide more scattered showers across the region. It is uncertain how much rainfall will actually develop across the region, and forecast amounts could disappoint.

ISOLATED SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS

In the Southern Plains, recent showers have been very isolated and soil moisture has been drying up during the last week. This has promoted favorable conditions for wheat harvest but worsening conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Isolated showers will remain possible during the next couple of days with a better chance as a system moves across northern areas this weekend into early next week, proving some beneficial moisture.

SCATTERED WEEKEND SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Heat with little rainfall continues in the Northern Plains Wednesday, but a front moving through the region will take temperatures on a slow progression toward below normal by this weekend. A system moving across the area this weekend may have a better shot at scattered showers, but amounts will likely be light. Temperatures going below normal will help with the stress, but crops are in dire need of moisture through most of the region.

WATCHING TROPICAL STORM IN DELTA

Flooding occurred in the middle portion of the Delta last week, causing a need for replanting. Otherwise, conditions are favorable for developing soybeans and cotton. We will have to watch for a potential tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and where it moves during the weekend and next week.

TROPICAL STORM POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTHEAST

Recent showers in the Southeast have increased soil moisture across a good portion of the region, but showers will be relegated to the coasts for the rest of the week, with drier conditions inland. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton. We will have to watch for a potential tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and where it moves over the weekend and next week.

CHANGING CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent rainfall in the Canadian Prairies has been highly beneficial for developing crops, except there were places that received too much and caused some flooding. Otherwise, heat through Wednesday will help plants take advantage of the soil moisture. A cold front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some scattered showers will be possible along with strong winds, but temperatures will be on a roller coaster for the following week. A couple of isolated areas may see frosty mornings during the down swings.

DRY CENTRAL BRAZIL

Central areas of Brazil remain dry, suppressing yield prospects for safrinha (second crop) corn. A system is expected to affect southern states yet again late this week and weekend with isolated showers. But those showers will not make it into central states. Another system will follow in a similar fashion early next week.

BLACK SEA HEATWAVE

An upper-level low continues to produce widespread showers in Ukraine and southwest Russia during the next few days, benefiting developing crops. But the showers have also put some extra disease pressure on winter wheat that is heading toward maturity. The low will shift more toward the Balkans this weekend with drier and hot conditions this weekend into next week. The heat may be quite significant with triple-digit readings possible.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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