Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- A reversal from the hot and dry June in the Corn Belt along with continued dryness in Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Tuesday.

UNCERTAIN MIDWEST SHOWERS

Isolated showers recently have limited soil moisture gains to only localized places in the Midwest. Dryness has been consistently expanding across Minnesota and Iowa, where crop conditions have fallen the most. A front will move through with some isolated showers this week but with falling temperatures, helping to reduce drought stress. The extended heat wave will be over after the front passes through though temperatures will remain near to above normal. A system moving through this weekend into early next week could provide more scattered showers across the region with below-normal temperatures likely. This is an uncertain situation: how much rainfall will actually develop across the region and forecast amounts could disappoint.

OCCASIONAL SOUTHERN PLAINS STORMS

In the Southern Plains, recent showers have been very isolated and soil moisture has been drying up during the last week. This has promoted favorable conditions for wheat harvest but worsening conditions for developing corn and soybeans. Isolated showers will remain possible during the next couple of days with a better chance as a system moves along a stalled boundary in the region this weekend. If this occurs, it would improve soil moisture over drier portions of Nebraska and Kansas.

HEAT BREAKING IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Heat with little rainfall will continue across the Northern Plains through Wednesday, when a front will come through the region and take temperatures on a slow progression toward below normal by this weekend. The heat may induce some isolated thunderstorms and the front may cause some as well. But overall, coverage and amounts will not be very good as drought will worsen for areas that were missed last week, and resume for areas that did see some improvement. A system moving across the area this weekend may have a better shot at scattered showers but amounts will likely be light. Temperatures going below normal will help with the stress, but crops are in dire need of moisture through most of the region.

DRIER DELTA AIDS RECOVERY

Flooding occurred in the middle portion of the Delta last week, causing a need for replanting. Otherwise, conditions are favorable for developing soybeans and cotton. We will have to watch for a potential tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and where it moves during the weekend and next week.

POTENTIAL TROPICAL STORM IN THE SOUTHEAST

Recent showers in the Southeast have increased soil moisture across a good portion of the region, but showers will be relegated to the coasts for the rest of the week, with drier conditions inland. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton. We will have to watch for a potential tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and where it moves during the weekend and next week.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent rainfall in the Canadian Prairies has been highly beneficial for developing crops, except there were places that received too much and caused some flooding. Otherwise, heat through Wednesday will help plants take advantage of the soil moisture. A cold front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some scattered showers will be possible along with strong winds, but temperatures will be on a roller coaster for the following week. A couple of isolated areas may see frosty mornings during the down swings.

DRY CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front moved from southern to central Brazil during the weekend. Some scattered showers made it into the moisture-starved central states, but amounts were generally less than 0.50 inch and overly unhelpful. Some isolated showers may continue for Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais on Tuesday but drier conditions continue to suppress yield prospects for safrinha (second crop) corn. A system is expected to affect southern states yet again late this week and weekend with isolated showers but will not make it into central states.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA SHOWERS

An upper-level low continues to produce widespread showers in Ukraine and southwest Russia, benefiting developing crops, but putting some extra disease pressure on winter wheat that is heading toward maturity. The low will shift more toward the Balkans late this week and weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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