Commodities Market Impact Weather

Pattern Change Expected This Week

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Changes to the hot and dry period along with Brazil's continued dryness are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Monday.

ISOLATED MIDWEST SHOWERS FOR NOW

Isolated to occasionally scattered showers fell across the eastern portions of the Midwest this weekend. Western areas saw very isolated activity on Friday as thunderstorms dried out as they moved through. More areas remained dry than received rainfall as drought continues to worsen in Minnesota and Iowa. Heat has also built back into the western half of the region while a cold front will bring more seasonable temperatures to the east this week. The front causing the temperature change may or may not stall across southern portions of the region this weekend into next week. If it does, more widespread showers will be possible across the southern half of the region, but drought is likely to remain across the north, stressing developing corn and soybeans.

ISOLATED PLAINS STORMS

In the Southern Plains, clusters of thunderstorms fell over all but the central portions of the Plains over the weekend. Pockets of thunderstorms may develop across western areas during the next several days before a front moves into the region late in the week. This front may or may not stall across the region and models are unsure of its movement or activity. If it indeed stalls, beneficial rainfall will likely be the result this weekend into next week. Otherwise, pockets of dryness are likely to creep back into the region as any thunderstorms would then be isolated. Until that front comes in this week, conditions should be mostly favorable for wheat harvest.

NORTHERN PLAINS TRENDING COLDER

Some isolated showers formed over central South Dakota on Sunday, but most of the Northern Plains were dry this weekend. After a day of milder conditions, the heat built back into the region on Sunday. The heat will remain in the area through Wednesday, when a front will come through the region and take temperatures on a slow progression toward below normal by this weekend. The heat may induce some isolated thunderstorms and the front may cause some as well, but overall, coverage and amounts will not be very good as drought will worsen for areas that were missed last week, and likely resume for areas that did see some improvement. Temperatures going below normal will help with the stress, but crops are in dire need of moisture through most of the region.

DRIER DELTA AIDS RECOVERY

Flooding occurred in the middle portion of the Delta last week, causing a need to replant. Isolated showers redeveloped over that same portion of the region on Sunday, but it will be drier for the rest of this week, helping soils to drain and floodwaters to recede. Otherwise, conditions are favorable for developing soybeans and cotton. We will have to watch for a potential tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and where it moves during the weekend and next week.

ISOLATED SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered showers have occurred nearly every day during the last week in the Southeast, benefiting drier soils. After Monday, showers will be more focused along the coasts with drier conditions inland. Overall, conditions are favorable for developing cotton. We will have to watch for a potential tropical storm developing in the western Gulf of Mexico later this week, and where it moves during the weekend and next week.

TRENDING COLDER IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Heavy rain continued over eastern portions of the Canadian Prairies Friday with some isolated showers on Saturday and drier conditions on Sunday. The recent rainfall has been highly beneficial for developing crops, except there were places that did receive too much and caused some flooding. Otherwise, heat through Wednesday will help plants take advantage of the soil moisture. A cold front will move through on Tuesday and Wednesday. Some scattered showers will be possible along with strong winds, but temperatures will be on a roller coaster of up-and-down for the following week. A couple of isolated areas may see frosty mornings during the down swings.

LIMITED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

A front moved from southern to central Brazil during the weekend. Some scattered showers made it into the moisture-starved central states, but amounts were generally less than 0.50 inch and overly unhelpful. Some isolated showers may continue for Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais through Tuesday but drier conditions continue to suppress yield prospects for safrinha (second crop) corn. A system is expected to affect southern states yet again late this week and weekend with isolated showers.

FAVORABLE BLACK SEA SHOWERS

An upper-level low continued to produce widespread showers over the Black Sea region this weekend benefiting developing crops, but putting some extra disease pressure on winter wheat that is heading toward maturity. The low will continue to produce showers in the region for most of this week, but shift more toward the Balkans late this week and weekend.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick