Commodities Market Impact Weather

Drier Pattern Begins With Storms

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Severe thunderstorms that moved through the Northern Plains Thursday night are the start to a drier pattern that continues next week and a potential for some limited showers in central Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Friday.

LIMITED MIDWEST SHOWERS

An upper-level low has been producing scattered showers mostly east of the Mississippi River in the Midwest this week but that low moves east on Friday. Coverage has been rather isolated with only small areas seeing moderate rainfall while others see light or none at all. Minnesota and Iowa have been dealing with higher temperatures and even fewer showers as drought has expanded or developed for much of the two states since late last week. Severe storms from the Northern Plains are weakening as they move into the region. Scattered showers will redevelop later this afternoon but move eastward across the Mississippi River by late afternoon or evening with drier conditions expected to develop through much of next week with temperatures rising again. Eastern areas will see some scattered showers with the front but see temperatures falling next week closer to or below normal.

EASTERN PLAINS STORMS

In the Southern Plains, showers have been isolated this week and will continue to be that way into next week as well. A cluster of thunderstorms did move through Nebraska Thursday night and portions of that cluster may continue in eastern Nebraska and Kansas on Friday. Conditions are beneficial for maturing and harvest of winter wheat, but patchy dry pockets may start to develop for developing corn and soybeans.

DRY AND HOT PATTERN RETURNS TO NORTHERN PLAINS

A line of strong to severe storms moved through the Northern Plains Thursday night, which produced widespread moderate rainfall. However, the region remains in non-uniform drought. Areas that have seen some decent rainfall this week will see reduced drought but there were more areas that saw limited rainfall with continued or worsening drought despite the rainfall overnight. After a brief reprieve from the heat on Friday, temperatures will rise well-above normal again by next week and the pattern turns much drier for at least the next week.

DELTA TURNING DRIER

Some flooding has occurred in the central Delta this week as showers have been persistent there, but drier conditions are expected during the next week, allowing soils to drain. Overall, conditions are quite favorable for developing soybeans and cotton outside of where flooding occurred.

PERIODS OF SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered pop-up type showers are expected in the Southeast for the next week, increasing soil moisture for most areas. Overall, conditions are good for developing cotton but a little difficult for final planting where those showers are occurring.

IMPROVED CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Scattered showers across the Prairies this week continue on Friday and have improved soil moisture conditions almost region-wide. Drought that had been losing its grip over western areas may be almost eliminated while easing has occurred over eastern areas. With temperatures mostly near normal, conditions are favorable for developing crops. Those conditions may be short-lived as hot and dry conditions rebuild in the area next week. A system late next week does have a chance to bring more showers, but that could end up being too far north as the dryness takes back over.

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers along a front over southern Brazil will move into Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais Friday and Saturday and stall. Some isolated showers will be possible across these states into next week, but rainfall amounts will be light and have little impact for corn that is almost too far along to receive much benefit. Drought stress continues to have harsh effects.

BLACK SEA SHOWERS CONTINUING

An upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers for Ukraine and southwest Russia through the weekend while more showers continue into next week as a frontal boundary lingers. Soil moisture is rather excellent for all developing crops in the region, though winter wheat that is further developed could use more dryness as it advances toward maturity. Otherwise, prospects are very favorable for all crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick