Commodities Market Impact Weather

Severe Thunderstorms in Northern Plains

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Severe thunderstorms in the Northern Plains and a potential for some limited showers in central Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Thursday.

DECREASING MIDWEST SHOWERS

An upper-level low has been producing scattered showers mostly east of the Mississippi River in the Midwest this week and continues through Friday before pushing eastward. Coverage has been rather isolated with only small areas seeing moderate rainfall while others see light amounts or none at all. Minnesota and Iowa have been dealing with higher temperatures and even fewer showers as drought has likely expanded or developed for much of the two states since late last week. Showers may move into both states on Friday, but they are mostly due to dying clusters of thunderstorms and some areas will be missed. The system will lose its punch working through eastern areas over the weekend and into early next week, with drier conditions expected. Well-above normal temperatures last at least through the weekend before temperatures fall across eastern areas behind a front. Heat continues across western states, however.

OCCASIONAL SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

In the Southern Plains, showers have been much more isolated this week and will continue to be that way into next week as well. The best chance for meaningful rainfall is across Nebraska late Thursday into Friday as organized thunderstorms are forecast. These conditions will be beneficial for maturing and harvest of winter wheat, but could start to develop patchy dry pockets for developing corn and soybeans.

ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Recent rainfall in the Northern Plains has been isolated, but significant where showers did develop. Organized thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday into early Friday as a frontal boundary moves through. Along with a risk of organized severe weather, widespread moderate rainfall is likely from this system, but the region turns drier afterward. Temperatures well-above normal will continue through most of next week under a strong heat ridge, and undo a lot of the beneficial moisture that has occurred this week.

HEAVY CENTRAL DELTA RAINS

An upper-level system continues to bring scattered showers to the Delta Thursday before its effects will shift farther east. Some flooding has occurred in the middle portion of the region this week, but conditions are quite favorable for developing soybeans and cotton overall.

SOUTHEAST SHOWERS CONTINUING

Scattered pop-up type showers are expected in the Southeast for the next week, increasing soil moisture for areas that had become rather dry recently. Overall, conditions are good for developing cotton but a little difficult for final planting.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, the latest Drought Monitor showed improving conditions across Alberta and Saskatchewan, but continued poor conditions for most of Manitoba. Scattered showers this week continue through Friday and have improved those conditions, favoring developing crops. Temperatures are likely to rise well-above normal for a few days next week, as drier weather also sets in.

ISOLATED SHOWERS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers along a front over southern Brazil will move into Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais Friday and Saturday and stall. Some isolated showers will be possible across these states into next week, but rainfall amounts will be light and have little impact for corn that is almost too far along to receive much benefit. Drought stress continues to have harsh effects.

DAILY BLACK SEA SHOWERS

An upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers across Ukraine and southwestern Russia through the weekend while more showers continue into next week as a frontal boundary lingers. Soil moisture is rather excellent for all crops in the region, though winter wheat that is further developed could use more dryness as it advances toward maturity. Otherwise, prospects are very favorable for all crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick