DTN Ag Weather Brief

DTN Ag Weather Brief

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist
METEOROLOGICAL DISCUSSION

There is an upper-level low in the eastern Midwest with a deep trough across the West Coast and a strong ridge across the Central and East. The upper-level low will exit to the east on Friday. A piece of energy from the trough in the West will move across the Canadian Prairies and deepen in eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend, forcing the ridge into the middle of the country.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK

In the 6-10 day period, the western trough will weaken and move through southern Canada and eventually into the eastern U.S. late next week and weekend as the pattern turns to ridge-west and trough-east.

The U.S. and European models have a similar upper-level pattern, but there are some significant differences in the surface depiction. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to above normal for most areas with cooler temperatures moving into the Midwest and Northeast U.S. Cooler temperatures will remain in place across the East through the end of the week, but are likely to rise next weekend. Some showers will linger across eastern and southern areas early next week while some occasional showers may develop in the Plains at times as well. A system will move across Canada late next week, producing some isolated showers across the northern tier of the country.

John Baranick

DTN Ag Meteorologist

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH WED...114 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW WED...23 AT OLD STATION CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM WEDNESDAY...TUPELO MS 4.79 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is an upper-level low in the eastern Midwest with a deep trough across the West Coast and a strong ridge across the Central and East. The upper-level low will exit to the east on Friday. A piece of energy from the trough in the West will move across the Canadian Prairies and deepen in eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend, forcing the ridge into the middle of the country. The trough-ridge-trough pattern is expected to continue into next week. The western trough will weaken and move through southern Canada and eventually into the eastern U.S. late next week and weekend as the pattern turns to ridge-west and trough-east.

The U.S. and European models have a similar upper-level pattern, but there are some significant differences in the surface depiction. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Tuesday will be near to above normal for most areas with lower temperatures moving into the Midwest and Northeast U.S. Low temperatures will remain in place across the East through the end of the week, but are likely to rise next weekend. Some showers will linger across eastern and southern areas early next week while some occasional showers may develop in the Plains at times as well. A system will move across Canada late next week, producing some isolated showers across the northern tier of the country.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): Recent rainfall has been isolated, but significant where showers did develop. Organized thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday into early Friday as a frontal boundary moves through. Along with a risk of organized severe weather, widespread moderate rainfall is likely from this system, but the region turns drier afterward. Temperatures well above normal will continue through most of next week under a strong heat ridge and undo a lot of the beneficial moisture that has occurred this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers have been much more isolated this week and will continue to be that way into next week as well. The best chance for meaningful rainfall is across Nebraska late Thursday into Friday as organized thunderstorms are forecast. These conditions will be beneficial for maturing and harvest of winter wheat but could start to develop patchy dry pockets for developing corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low has been producing scattered showers mostly east of the Mississippi River this week and continues through Friday before pushing eastward. Coverage has been rather isolated with only small areas seeing moderate rainfall while others see light precipitation or none at all. Minnesota and Iowa have been dealing with higher temperatures and even less shower activity as drought has likely expanded or developed for much of the two states since late last week. Organized showers may move into both states on Friday, but they are due to clusters of thunderstorms and some areas may be missed. The system will lose its punch working through eastern areas over the weekend and into early next week, with drier conditions expected. Well above normal temperatures last at least through the weekend before temperatures fall across eastern areas behind a front. Heat continues across western states, however.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): An upper-level system continues to bring scattered showers to most areas Thursday before its effects will shift farther east. Some flooding has occurred in the middle portion of the region this week, but conditions are quite favorable for developing soybeans and cotton overall.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered pop-up type showers are expected for the next week, increasing soil moisture for areas that had become rather dry recently. Overall, conditions are good for developing cotton but a little difficult for final planting.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The latest Drought Monitor showed improving conditions across Alberta and Saskatchewan but continued poor conditions for most of Manitoba. Scattered showers this week continue through Friday and have improved those conditions, favoring developing crops. Temperatures are likely to rise well above normal for a few days next week, as drier weather also sets in.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers along a front over the south will move into Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais Friday and Saturday and stall. Some isolated showers will be possible across these states into next week, but rainfall amounts will be light and have little impact for corn that is almost too far along to receive much benefit. Drought stress continues to have harsh effects.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Most areas will remain dry over the next week, favoring the remaining corn harvest. Even with the drier conditions, developing winter wheat is seeing mostly favorable conditions.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Scattered showers will continue over central and eastern growing areas for the rest of the week, with a drier trend spreading west to east over the weekend into next week. Temperatures above normal will hasten development of crops. Recent showers have produced adequate soil moisture across the majority of the continent, benefiting developing crops.

UKRAINE/SOUTHWEST RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): An upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers through the weekend while more showers continue into next week as a frontal boundary lingers. Soil moisture is rather excellent for all crops in the region, though winter wheat that is further developed could use more dryness as it advances toward maturity. Otherwise, prospects are very favorable for all crops.

EASTERN RUSSIA/KAZAKHSTAN (SPRING WHEAT/GRAINS): Heat and dryness over the last couple of months has caused heat and drought stress to developing spring wheat and grains. Limited moisture continues to be in the forecast through the next week, with the focus for isolated or scattered showers mostly in far eastern Kazakhstan and Siberia.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers have been highly beneficial for developing wheat and canola, though temperatures remain on the cold side and are limiting growth somewhat in eastern growing areas. Despite this, prospects for winter grains and oilseeds are highly favorable so far this winter.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains favorable for developing corn and soybeans in the northeast and temperatures are rising above normal to hasten development. Conditions remain favorable for harvesting winter wheat and canola on the North China Plain.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to develop ahead of the monsoon across most of the country, prepping soils for planting for cotton and soybeans. The monsoon is located in the south, on schedule, and widespread showers will continue to fall across much of the country, especially in the south and east. Models are trying to develop another tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal this weekend, increasing flood risks across northeastern areas of the country.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers north Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday and Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday through Monday.

East: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday through Monday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday and Saturday. Temperatures above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday through Thursday, near to above normal Friday and Saturday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Monday. Better chances north Thursday night through Friday. Temperatures above normal through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures near to above normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers, heavy central. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Isolated showers Friday through Sunday. Mostly dry Monday. Temperatures near normal Thursday, near to above normal Friday through Monday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Tuesday through Saturday. Temperatures near normal Tuesday through Saturday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Isolated showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday and Sunday, near to below normal Monday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers MGDS. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers MGDS Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday through Monday. Temperatures above normal Thursday, near to below normal south and near to above normal north Friday through Sunday, near to above normal Monday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal Thursday, near to below normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday, near normal Monday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Isolated showers east. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Mostly dry through Monday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday, near normal Monday.

John Baranick