DTN Daily Basis Comments

Wednesday Morning Basis Update

Mary Kennedy
By  Mary Kennedy , DTN Basis Analyst
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DAILY BASIS AND CASH INDEX SUMMARY:

The national average basis for corn was unchanged at 11 cents over the July futures contract while the DTN National Corn Index was up 1 cent at $6.91. The national average basis for soybeans was 2 cents weaker at 28 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Soybean Index was up 17 cents at $15.52. The national average basis for HRW wheat was unchanged at 15 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Winter Wheat Index was up 3 cents at $6.17. The national average basis for HRS wheat was unchanged at 30 cents under the July futures contract while the DTN National Hard Red Spring Wheat Index was down 14 cents at $7.41.

DTN Cash Change From National Contract Change from
Commodity Index Prev Day Avg. Basis Month Prev Day
Corn: $6.91 $0.01 $0.11 Jul -$0.001
Soybeans: $15.52 $0.17 -$0.28 Jul -$0.023
SRW Wheat: $6.65 $0.04 -$0.20 Jul -$0.006
HRW Wheat: $6.17 $0.03 -$0.15 Jul $0.000
HRS Wheat: $7.41 -$0.14 -$0.30 Jul -$0.007

CORN:

The national average corn basis for Tuesday is at 11 cents over the July futures, unchanged from than Monday's basis. July corn was up 3/4 cents Tuesday, while September was up 7 cents as the market remains focused on new crop and concerns about hot and dry weather in the next 10 days. Monday's USDA Crop Progress report showed a decline in corn conditions though June 6, but at 72% good to excellent, the rating is still above average. Ratings declined in North Dakota, Michigan and South Dakota, which reported the sharpest decline. The 15% poor to very poor condition is the lowest rating for South Dakota on this date since 1992. As for Brazil's second corn crop, not much has changed as central Brazil's primary producing area is still lacking moisture and crop projections continue to slide downward for that area. The Department of Rural Economy (Deral) in Parana reported the crop at just 22% good to excellent with 32% rated poor to very poor. Track PNW basis for December was 2 cents weaker at 118Z, while there are still no bids between now and first half November. Ethanol plant basis was 3 cents weaker in central Iowa, 5 cents weaker in northwest Iowa and central Nebraska, 6 cents weaker in northeastern Iowa and west-central Illinois was 4 cents weaker.

SOYBEANS:

The national average soybean basis for Tuesday is at 28 cents under the July futures, 2 cents weaker than Monday's basis. July soybeans closed up 19 3/4 cents Tuesday, getting some help from the 1.75 cents higher close in soybean oil. Monday's crop progress report showed the first soybean condition of the season, with the crop rated above average at 67% good to excellent. Nebraska reported the highest rating of 86% good to excellent, while North Dakota was at 25% good to excellent with 32% of the crop in the poor to very poor category. The U.S. Census Bureau released the official April soybean export data showing 51 million bushels (mb) exported, down 40% from last month. Processor basis continues to fall with central Illinois 15 cents weaker and southern Minnesota 10 cents weaker, while river basis is steady to weaker as well. Barge freight has hit bottom it seems, with more bids showing up now than the past few weeks.

SOFT RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average SRW wheat basis for Tuesday is at 20 cents under the July futures, 1 cent weaker than Monday's basis.

HARD RED WINTER WHEAT:

The national average HRW wheat basis for Tuesday is at 15 cents under the Kansas City July futures, unchanged from Monday's basis. KC July closed up 2 1/2 cents even as Minneapolis wheat closed down 13 3/4 cents. USDA rated the spring crop 25% fair to very poor, with this being the lowest rating since 1988, as six states all reported a decline in conditions. On the flip side, HRW wheat ratings came in above average for the week ended June 6, but the average all winter wheat ratings were dragged down by the winter white wheat rating which declined sharply for the fourth week in a row and is the lowest rating seen in the last 10 years. Spot KC premiums for lower protein were weaker again as mills have no interest in low protein given the likelihood new crop will be on the low side.

HARD RED SPRING WHEAT:

The national average HRS wheat basis for Tuesday is at 30 cents under the Minneapolis July futures, unchanged from Monday's basis. The Minneapolis spot spring wheat cash market closed as follows, basis the Minneapolis July futures contract for No. 1 milling quality: 12% proteins were not quoted, 13% proteins were unchanged at +70N, 13.5% proteins were not quoted, 14% proteins were down 20 cents to unchanged at +105* to +130; 14.5% proteins were up 5 cents at +115 and 15% proteins were unchanged to up 5 cents at +105* to +165. Receipts were 114 cars, which included four train(s).* (Bid=B Ask=A Nominal=N) Wheat on the MGEX floor is traded delivered Chicago/beyond.

Mary Kennedy can be reached at mary.kennedy@dtn.com

Follow her on Twitter @MaryCKenn

Mary Kennedy

Mary Kennedy
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