Commodities Market Impact Weather

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Disappointing showers across the eastern Midwest and the continued dryness for central Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Wednesday.

DISAPPOINTING MIDWEST SHOWERS

An upper-level low has been producing scattered showers mostly east of the Mississippi River in the Midwest this week and continues through Friday before pushing eastward. Coverage thus far has been isolated, with many areas disappointed. Minnesota and Iowa have been dealing with higher temperatures and even less shower activity as drought has likely expanded or developed for much of the two states since late last week. Organized showers may move into both states on Friday, but they are due to clusters of thunderstorms and some areas may be missed. The system will lose its punch working through eastern areas during the weekend and into early next week, with drier conditions expected. The heat lasts at least through the weekend before temperatures fall across eastern areas behind a front. Heat may continue across western states, however.

OCCASIONAL SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

In the Southern Plains, showers have been much more isolated this week and will continue to be that way into next week as well. The best chance for meaningful rainfall is across Nebraska late Thursday night into Friday as organized thunderstorms are forecast but the region turns drier afterward. These conditions will be beneficial for maturing and harvest of winter wheat, but could start to develop patchy dry pockets for corn and soybeans.

LOCALLY BENEFICIAL SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

In the Northern Plains, a cluster of thunderstorms had a life of its own on Tuesday, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall across a good portion of North Dakota and into South Dakota as well. More showers fired up to its west with isolated moderate amounts as well. The rainfall was highly beneficial where it occurred outside of flooding, but the drought continues to cause concern. Isolated thunderstorms continue on Wednesday, but organized thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday into early Friday as a frontal boundary moves through. Along with a risk of organized severe weather, widespread moderate rainfall is likely from this system, but the region turns drier afterward. Heat will continue through most of next week under a strong ridge, and undo a lot of the beneficial moisture that has occurred this week.

HEAVY CENTRAL DELTA RAINS

An upper-level system continues to bring scattered showers to the Delta through Thursday before its effects will shift farther east. Some flooding has occurred in the middle portion of the region this week, but conditions are quite favorable for developing soybeans and cotton overall.

CONTINUED SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered pop-up type showers are expected across the Southeast for the next week, increasing soil moisture for areas that had become rather dry recently. Overall, conditions are good for developing cotton but a little difficult for final planting.

TURNING HOT AGAIN IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

In the Canadian Prairies, the latest Drought Monitor showed improving conditions across Alberta and Saskatchewan, but continued poor conditions for most of Manitoba. Scattered showers will continue this week with mostly seasonable temperatures, favoring most crops in most areas. Temperatures are likely to rise well-above normal next week, as drier weather also sets in.

RUNNING OUT OF TIME IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered showers continue over southern Brazil with a front relatively stalled. The front will try to push into Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais Friday and Saturday, but showers will quickly dry up as it does so. Dry conditions look to follow next week and corn is running out of time for rainfall to be beneficial. Drought stress continues to have harsh effects.

DAILY BLACK SEA SHOWERS

An upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers across the Black Sea region through the weekend while more showers continue next week as a frontal boundary lingers. Soil moisture is rather excellent for all crops in the region, though winter wheat that is further developed could use more dryness as it advances toward maturity and the wet conditions are causing increased disease pressure. Otherwise, prospects are very favorable for all crops.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

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