DTN Ag Weather Brief

NATIONAL TEMPERATURE/RAINFALL EXTREMES:

HIGH TUE...115 AT RIO GRANDE VILLAGE TX

LOW TUE...25 AT BODIE STATE PARK CA

24 HOUR RAINFALL ENDING AT 7PM TUESDAY...LITTLE ROCK AR 2.92 INCHES

US OUTLOOK AND MODEL DISCUSSION 6-10 DAY PERIOD:

There is an upper-level low in the Midwest with a deep trough across the West Coast and a strong ridge across the Central and East. The upper-level low will slowly move through the Midwest over the next few days, exiting to the east on Friday. A piece of energy from the trough in the West will move across the Canadian Prairies and deepen in eastern Canada and the Northeast this weekend, forcing the ridge into the middle of the country. The trough-ridge-trough pattern is expected to continue into next week. The western trough will weaken and move through southern Canada and eventually into the eastern U.S. late next week and weekend as the pattern turns to ridge-west and trough-east.

The U.S. and European models have a similar upper-level pattern, but there are some significant differences in the surface depiction. I will use a model blend but favor the European.

For the outlook period, temperatures on Monday will be near to above normal across the country with the highest departures across the Rockies. Temperatures will cool closer to or below normal across the East next week. Some showers will linger across eastern and southern areas early next week while some occasional showers may develop in the Plains at times in the extended period.

MAJOR WORLD HIGHLIGHTS/IMPACT:

NORTHERN PLAINS (LIVESTOCK/SPRING WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): A cluster of thunderstorms had a life of its own on Tuesday, bringing moderate to heavy rainfall across a good portion of North Dakota and into South Dakota as well. More showers fired up to its west with isolated moderate amounts as well. The rainfall was highly beneficial where it occurred outside of flooding, but the drought continues to cause concern. Isolated thunderstorms continue on Wednesday, but organized thunderstorms are forecast for Thursday into early Friday as a frontal boundary moves through. Along with a risk of organized severe weather, widespread moderate rainfall is likely from this system, but the region turns drier afterward. Heat will continue through most of next week under a strong heat ridge and undo a lot of the beneficial moisture that has occurred this week.

CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS (WINTER WHEAT/LIVESTOCK/CORN/SOYBEANS): Showers over recent weeks have been much more isolated this week and will continue to be that way into next week as well. The best chance for meaningful rainfall is across Nebraska late Thursday night into Friday as organized thunderstorms are forecast but the region turns drier afterward. These conditions will be beneficial for maturing and harvest of winter wheat but could start to develop patchy dry pockets for corn and soybeans.

MIDWEST (WINTER WHEAT/CORN/SOYBEANS): An upper-level low has been producing scattered showers mostly east of the Mississippi River this week and continues through Friday before pushing eastward. Coverage thus far has not been very widespread and has been more isolated. That trend may continue, producing more variable and disappointing rainfall, though conditions are largely better across this area than farther to the west. Minnesota and Iowa have been dealing with higher temperatures and even less shower activity as drought has likely expanded or developed for much of the two states since late last week. Organized showers may move into both states on Friday, but they are due to clusters of thunderstorms and some areas may be missed. The system will lose its punch working through eastern areas over the weekend and into early next week, with drier conditions expected. The heat lasts at least through the weekend before temperatures fall across eastern areas behind a front. Heat may continue across western states, however.

DELTA (SOYBEANS/COTTON): An upper-level system continues to bring scattered showers to most areas through Thursday before its effects will shift farther east. Some flooding has occurred in the middle portion of the region this week, but conditions are quite favorable for developing soybeans and cotton overall.

SOUTHEAST (COTTON/LIVESTOCK): Scattered pop-up type showers are expected for the next week, increasing soil moisture for areas that had become rather dry recently. Overall, conditions are good for developing cotton but a little difficult for final planting.

CANADIAN PRAIRIES (SPRING WHEAT/CANOLA): The latest Drought Monitor showed improving conditions across Alberta and Saskatchewan but continued poor conditions for most of Manitoba. Scattered showers will continue this week with mostly seasonable temperatures, favoring most crops in most areas. Temperatures are likely to rise well above normal next week, however as drier weather also sets in.

BRAZIL (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Scattered showers continue over southern states with a front relatively stalled. The front will try to push into Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais Friday and Saturday, but showers will quickly dry up as it does so. Dry conditions look to follow next week, and corn is running out of time for rainfall to be beneficial. Drought stress continues to have harsh effects.

ARGENTINA (CORN/WINTER WHEAT): Most areas will remain dry over the next week, favoring the remaining corn harvest. Even with the drier conditions, developing winter wheat is seeing mostly favorable conditions.

EUROPE (WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN): Scattered showers will continue over central and eastern growing areas for the rest of the week, with a drier trend spreading west to east over the weekend into next week. Temperatures above normal will hasten development of crops. Recent showers have produced adequate soil moisture across the majority of the continent, benefiting developing crops.

UKRAINE/RUSSIA (WHEAT/CORN/SUNFLOWERS): An upper-level low will continue to produce scattered showers through the weekend while more showers continue next week as a frontal boundary lingers. Soil moisture is rather excellent for all crops in the region, though winter wheat that is further developed could use more dryness as it advances toward maturity. Otherwise, prospects are favorable for all crops.

AUSTRALIA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA): Recent showers have been highly beneficial for developing wheat and canola, though temperatures remain on the cold side and are limiting growth somewhat in eastern growing areas. Despite this, prospects for winter grains and oilseeds are highly favorable so far this winter.

CHINA (WINTER WHEAT/CANOLA/CORN/SOYBEANS): Soil moisture remains favorable for developing corn and soybeans in the northeast and temperatures are rising above normal to hasten development. Conditions remain favorable for harvesting winter wheat and canola on the North China Plain.

INDIA (COTTON/SOYBEANS): Scattered showers continue to develop ahead of the monsoon across most of the country, prepping soils for planting for cotton and soybeans. The monsoon is located in the south, on schedule, and widespread showers will continue to fall across much of the country, especially in the south and east. Models are trying to develop another tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal this weekend, increasing flood risks across northeastern areas of the country.

EXPANDED SUMMARIES FORECASTS:

Midwest (corn, soybeans and winter wheat)

Summary:

West: Isolated showers southeast. Temperatures above to well above normal.

East: Scattered showers. Temperatures above to well above normal.

Forecast:

West: Isolated showers southeast Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday. Scattered showers Friday. Isolated showers south Saturday. Mostly dry Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

East: Scattered showers through Friday. Isolated showers Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above to well above normal through Saturday, above normal Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Scattered showers east Monday. Mostly dry Tuesday through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, above normal west and near to below normal east Tuesday through Thursday, near to above normal Friday.

Central and Southern Plains (winter wheat/corn/livestock)

Summary: Isolated showers southeast and northwest. Temperatures near to above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers through Sunday. Better chances north Friday. Temperatures above normal Wednesday and Thursday, near to above normal Friday through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Isolated showers Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday through Friday.

Mississippi Delta (soybeans/cotton)

Summary: Scattered showers, heavy rain central. Temperatures near normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers through Thursday. Isolated showers Friday through Sunday. Temperatures near normal through Thursday, near to above normal Friday through Sunday.

6- to 10-day outlook: Mostly dry Monday through Friday. Temperatures near to above normal Monday, near normal Tuesday through Friday.

Brazil Soybeans and Corn...

Rio Grande do Sul and Parana...

Summary: Scattered showers. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Scattered showers Thursday. Mostly dry Friday through Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, below normal Saturday and Sunday.

Mato Grosso, MGDS and southern Goias...

Summary: Scattered showers MGDS. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Scattered showers MGDS through Thursday. Isolated showers north Friday. Mostly dry Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures above normal through Thursday, near to below normal south and near to above normal north Friday through Sunday.

Argentina Corn, Soybeans, and Wheat...

Cordoba, Santa Fe, Northern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Thursday, near to below normal Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

La Pampa, Southern Buenos Aires...

Summary: Mostly dry. Temperatures above normal.

Forecast: Isolated showers east Wednesday. Mostly dry Thursday through Sunday. Temperatures near to above normal through Friday, above normal Saturday and Sunday.

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