Commodities Market Impact Weather

Upper Midwest Missing the Showers

John Baranick
By  John Baranick , DTN Meteorologist

MINNEAPOLIS (DTN) -- Heat with some periods of showers across the northern crop areas and continued dryness in central Brazil are the primary weather concerns holding the market's attention Tuesday.

SHOWERS BATTLING HEAT IN MIDWEST

Scattered showers are spreading through the eastern portions of the Midwest and will continue to do so through Friday before an upper-level low pushes eastward. Western areas have seen very high temperatures and increasing dryness and drought. Very few showers are expected during the next few days particularly across Iowa and Minnesota. A system will move through Friday over western areas with potentially organized showers, but they will dry up as the system heads eastward through the weekend and early next week. Temperatures will remain well-above normal, especially where showers do not occur. Models agree on cooling to near to below normal next week over the eastern half of the region, but remain above normal across the west with dryness, increasing stress.

OCCASIONAL SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOWERS

In the Southern Plains, scattered showers have dotted the west and east over the past several days and will continue for the rest of the week. Some passing thunderstorms may move across central areas, but are more likely across Nebraska. Drier conditions will benefit winter wheat harvest across the south and soil moisture is currently adequate for developing corn and soybeans. Expected drier conditions through next week could start to induce more stress for central areas.

BRIEFLY BENEFICIAL SHOWERS IN NORTHERN PLAINS

Heat in the Northern Plains continues to produce significant stress to developing row crops. Some isolated showers did develop Monday night and were strong to severe across southeast North Dakota with some localized rainfall amounts above 2 inches. The rest of the region continues to see drought increase. Isolated showers will again be possible Tuesday and Wednesday, but more organized widespread precipitation is forecast as a system moves through Thursday into Friday. However, behind that system, the region will turn dry again. After a brief reprieve on Friday, temperatures will rise well-above normal again, undoing much of the benefit any showers provide. With the strong instability, strong to severe storms are possible and could cause further damage.

FAVORABLE DELTA SHOWERS

An upper-level system continues to bring scattered showers to the Delta through Thursday before its effects will shift farther east. Overall, conditions are quite favorable for developing soybeans and cotton.

WIDESPREAD SOUTHEAST SHOWERS

Scattered pop-up type showers are expected in the Southeast for the next week, increasing soil moisture for areas that had become rather dry recently. Overall, conditions are good for developing cotton but a little difficult for final planting.

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS IN CANADIAN PRAIRIES

Recent showers have been beneficial across the Canadian Prairies, but more are needed to end drought. However, scattered showers will continue this week with mostly seasonable temperatures, favoring most crops in most areas.

CONTINUED DRYNESS IN CENTRAL BRAZIL

Scattered moderate to heavy showers moved through southern Brazil with a front over the weekend while central states remained dry. This will generally be true for most of this week. The front will try to push into the higher production areas of Mato Grosso, Goias, and Minas Gerais late this week, but showers will quickly dry up as it does so. Corn in these areas are running out of time for rainfall to be beneficial and drought stress continues to have harsh outcomes.

DAILY BLACK SEA SHOWERS

An upper-level low produced isolated to scattered showers across the Black Sea region this weekend, especially across southern Russia, where the moisture was needed the most. Temperatures were a little below normal, helping more of the rainfall soak into the ground rather than evaporate, but slowing crop growth. The upper-level low will remain in the region through the week, helping to increase soil moisture for developing crops, but keeping temperatures close to normal.

John Baranick can be reached at john.baranick@dtn.com

John Baranick